$178€158todayIs a Fifth Dawn bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$177.60€158.46
- Lowest listing
- $160.27€143
- Per pack
- $29.60€26.41
Keep it sealed$30€27 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $30€27 after selling costs. The box costs $178€158.
On average you lose $147€131 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between $30€27 and $31€28.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $28€25. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $51€46 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $13€11 or less.
Fifth Dawn EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 6 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $178€158
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $48€43
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$17−€16
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $30€27
- Compared with the box price
- −$147−€131
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $177.60€158.46$29.60€26.41 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $160.27€143
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $9€8 | 5 of 100 | Lose money |
| $9€8 to $15€13 | 10 of 100 | Lose money |
| $15€13 to $21€18 | 15 of 100 | Lose money |
| $21€18 to $26€23 | 16 of 100 | Lose money |
| $26€23 to $32€28 | 14 of 100 | Lose money |
| $32€28 to $38€33 | 12 of 100 | Lose money |
| $38€33 to $43€38 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| $43€38 to $49€43 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| $49€43 to $54€48 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $54€48 to $60€53 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $60€53 to $66€58 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $66€58 to $71€63 | 1 in 87 | Lose money |
| $71€63 to $77€68 | 1 in 151 | Lose money |
| $77€68 to $82€73 | 1 in 220 | Lose money |
| $82€73 to $88€78 | 1 in 433 | Lose money |
| $88€78 to $94€83 | 1 in 546 | Lose money |
| $94€83 to $99€88 | 1 in 1,124 | Lose money |
| $99€88 to $105€93 | 1 in 1,852 | Lose money |
| $105€93 to $110€98 | 1 in 2,632 | Lose money |
| $110€98 to $116€103 | 1 in 4,000 | Lose money |
| $116€103 to $122€108 | 1 in 6,667 | Lose money |
| $122€108 to $127€113 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $127€113 to $133€118 | 1 in 33,333 | Lose money |
| $133€118 to $138€123 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $138€123 to $144€128 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $144€128 to $150€133 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $150€133 to $155€138 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $155€138 to $161€143 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $161€143 to $166€148 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $166€148 to $172€153 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $172€153 to $178€158 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $178€158 to $183€163 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $183€163 to $189€168 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $189€168 to $194€173 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare5.9 per box | 5.9 per box | $2.36€2.10 | |
| Uncommon18 per box | 18 per box | $0.67€0.60 | |
| Common65 per box | 65 per box | $0.03€0.02 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 3.9 boxes | 1 in 3.9 boxes | $4.64€4.14 | |
| Foil rare1 in 12 boxes | 1 in 12 boxes | $10.21€9.11 | |
| Foil common1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.1 boxes | $0.91€0.81 | |
| Total | $30€27 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Foil rare 8of 100 boxes 1 in 12 boxes$10€9.11 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foil rare | 8 of 100 | 1 in 12 boxes | 642 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $30€27 | −$147−€131 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $22€19 | −$156−€139 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $14€12 | −$164−€146 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $6€6 | −$171−€153 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Fifth Dawn pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 11 per pack | |||
| Foil common | 1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.9 boxes to 1.7 per box | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Common | 65 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Foil uncommon | 1 in 3.9 boxes | 1 in 2.2 to 7.0 boxes | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Uncommon | 18 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Foil rare | 1 in 12 boxes | 1 in 6.5 to 21 boxes | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Rare | 5.9 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable Fifth Dawn cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Krark-Clan Ironworks (foil) | Foil uncommon | $50.48€45.04 | $47.68€42.54 |
| Mycosynth Golem (foil) | Foil rare | $49.88€44.50 | $47.10€42.03 |
| Grinding Station (foil) | Foil uncommon | $49.49€44.16 | $46.74€41.70 |
| Engineered Explosives (foil) | Foil rare | $45.80€40.86 | $43.23€38.57 |
| Crucible of Worlds (foil) | Foil rare | $40.32€35.97 | $38.02€33.92 |
| Auriok Champion (foil) | Foil rare | $39.19€34.97 | $36.95€32.97 |
| Clock of Omens (foil) | Foil uncommon | $32.31€28.83 | $30.42€27.14 |
| Beacon of Immortality (foil) | Foil rare | $30.52€27.23 | $28.71€25.62 |
| Staff of Domination (foil) | Foil rare | $27.34€24.39 | $25.69€22.92 |
| Doubling Cube (foil) | Foil rare | $25.76€22.98 | $24.19€21.58 |
| Vedalken Orrery (foil) | Foil rare | $24.19€21.58 | $22.70€20.25 |
| Plunge into Darkness (foil) | Foil rare | $23.53€20.99 | $22.07€19.69 |
| Eternal Witness (foil) | Foil uncommon | $23.40€20.88 | $21.95€19.59 |
| Crucible of Worlds | Rare | $22.81€20.35 | $21.39€19.08 |
| Mycosynth Golem | Rare | $22.80€20.34 | $21.38€19.07 |
| Silent Arbiter (foil) | Foil rare | $21.25€18.96 | $19.91€17.76 |
| Fist of Suns (foil) | Foil rare | $20.87€18.62 | $19.55€17.44 |
| Artificer's Intuition (foil) | Foil rare | $20.35€18.16 | $19.06€17.00 |
| Summoning Station (foil) | Foil rare | $18.02€16.08 | $16.84€15.03 |
| Paradise Mantle (foil) | Foil uncommon | $17.94€16.01 | $16.77€14.96 |
| Steelshaper's Gift (foil) | Foil uncommon | $16.79€14.98 | $15.67€13.98 |
| Salvaging Station (foil) | Foil rare | $14.34€12.79 | $13.34€11.90 |
| Beacon of Tomorrows (foil) | Foil rare | $13.91€12.41 | $12.93€11.54 |
| Reversal of Fortune (foil) | Foil rare | $12.87€11.48 | $11.94€10.66 |
| Doubling Cube | Rare | $12.43€11.09 | $11.53€10.29 |
| Helm of Kaldra (foil) | Foil rare | $11.87€10.59 | $11.00€9.81 |
| Krark-Clan Ironworks | Uncommon | $11.59€10.34 | $10.73€9.57 |
| Blasting Station (foil) | Foil uncommon | $11.53€10.29 | $10.68€9.53 |
| Staff of Domination | Rare | $11.17€9.97 | $10.34€9.22 |
| Battered Golem (foil) | Foil common | $10.69€9.54 | $9.88€8.81 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
More Magic boxes
- Magic UnhingedDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $266€238 of cards for a $573€511 box 99 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Champions of KamigawaDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $144€129 of cards for a $935€834 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Champions of KamigawaBundle Keep it sealed $12€11 of cards for a $182€163 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Fifth DawnDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $182€163 of cards for a $617€550 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic DarksteelDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $125€111 of cards for a $1,793€1,600 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic DarksteelBundle Keep it sealed $21€19 of cards for a $261€233 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
