€500todayIs a Judgment bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
€500
- Lowest listing
- €500
- Per pack
- €83.33
Keep it sealed€71 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth €71 after selling costs. The box costs €500.
On average you lose €429 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between €68 and €76.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth €65. 1 in 10 boxes is worth €107 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth €39 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 6 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- €500
- Cards inside, at market prices
- €92
- Selling costs and bulk
- −€21
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- €71
- Compared with the box price
- −€429
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, €0.25 per card sold, cards under €1.00 go to bulk at €0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- €500€83.33 per pack
- Lowest listing
- €500
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| €0 to €20 | 1 in 220 | Lose money |
| €20 to €40 | 11 of 100 | Lose money |
| €40 to €60 | 30 of 100 | Lose money |
| €60 to €80 | 30 of 100 | Lose money |
| €80 to €100 | 16 of 100 | Lose money |
| €100 to €120 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| €120 to €140 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €140 to €160 | 1 in 78 | Lose money |
| €160 to €180 | 1 in 218 | Lose money |
| €180 to €200 | 1 in 637 | Lose money |
| €200 to €220 | 1 in 1,163 | Lose money |
| €220 to €240 | 1 in 1,220 | Lose money |
| €240 to €260 | 1 in 1,754 | Lose money |
| €260 to €280 | 1 in 1,587 | Lose money |
| €280 to €300 | 1 in 595 | Lose money |
| €300 to €320 | 1 in 481 | Lose money |
| €320 to €340 | 1 in 952 | Lose money |
| €340 to €360 | 1 in 2,500 | Lose money |
| €360 to €380 | 1 in 4,167 | Lose money |
| €380 to €400 | 1 in 9,091 | Lose money |
| €400 to €420 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €420 to €440 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| €440 to €460 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €460 to €480 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €480 to €500 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €500 to €520 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| €520 or more | 1 in 50,000 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common65 per box | 65 per box | €0.48 | |
| Uncommon18 per box | 18 per box | €0.86 | |
| Rare5.9 per box | 5.9 per box | €2.29 | |
| Foil common1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.1 boxes | €5.41 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 3.9 boxes | 1 in 3.9 boxes | €14.57 | |
| Foil rare1 in 12 boxes | 1 in 12 boxes | €27.84 | |
| Total | €71 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Foil rare 8of 100 boxes 1 in 12 boxes€28 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foil rare | 8 of 100 | 1 in 12 boxes | 513 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | €71 | −€429 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | €52 | −€448 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | €32 | −€468 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | €13 | −€487 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 11 per pack | |||
| Foil common | 1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.9 boxes to 1.7 per box | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Common | 65 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Foil uncommon | 1 in 3.9 boxes | 1 in 2.2 to 7.0 boxes | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Uncommon | 18 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Foil rare | 1 in 12 boxes | 1 in 6.5 to 21 boxes | Estimate, Wikipedia: List of Magic: The Gathering sets (premium card rate 1 in 100 cards from Urza's Legacy, 1 in 70 from Torment, 1 in 56 from Tenth Edition; release dates) |
| Rare | 5.9 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabal Therapy (foil) | Foil uncommon | €256.89 | €243.80 |
| Sylvan Safekeeper (foil) | Foil rare | €181.04 | €171.74 |
| Burning Wish (foil) | Foil rare | €99.30 | €94.09 |
| Worldgorger Dragon (foil) | Foil rare | €76.71 | €72.62 |
| Mirari's Wake (foil) | Foil rare | €73.65 | €69.72 |
| Anger (foil) | Foil uncommon | €73.09 | €69.19 |
| Mental Note (foil) | Foil common | €66.45 | €62.88 |
| Prismatic Strands (foil) | Foil common | €64.00 | €60.55 |
| Seedtime (foil) | Foil rare | €63.59 | €60.16 |
| Solitary Confinement (foil) | Foil rare | €59.54 | €56.31 |
| Balthor the Defiled (foil) | Foil rare | €55.64 | €52.61 |
| Anurid Brushhopper (foil) | Foil rare | €51.65 | €48.82 |
| Wonder (foil) | Foil uncommon | €51.25 | €48.44 |
| Cunning Wish (foil) | Foil rare | €51.12 | €48.31 |
| Genesis (foil) | Foil rare | €45.84 | €43.30 |
| Phantom Nishoba (foil) | Foil rare | €44.35 | €41.88 |
| Living Wish (foil) | Foil rare | €43.72 | €41.28 |
| Lava Dart (foil) | Foil common | €42.80 | €40.41 |
| Flash of Insight (foil) | Foil uncommon | €39.46 | €37.24 |
| Dwarven Bloodboiler (foil) | Foil rare | €37.83 | €35.69 |
| Filth (foil) | Foil uncommon | €34.30 | €32.33 |
| Commander Eesha (foil) | Foil rare | €33.93 | €31.98 |
| Jeska, Warrior Adept (foil) | Foil rare | €32.22 | €30.36 |
| Quiet Speculation (foil) | Foil uncommon | €31.67 | €29.84 |
| Krosan Wayfarer (foil) | Foil common | €30.29 | €28.53 |
| Glory (foil) | Foil rare | €29.14 | €27.43 |
| Hunting Grounds (foil) | Foil rare | €29.09 | €27.39 |
| Sutured Ghoul (foil) | Foil rare | €28.70 | €27.01 |
| Envelop (foil) | Foil common | €24.83 | €23.34 |
| Silver Seraph (foil) | Foil rare | €20.85 | €19.56 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.