$385€344todayIs a Shadowmoor bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$385.42€343.88
- Per pack
- $48.18€42.99
Keep it sealed$41€37 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $41€37 after selling costs. The box costs $385€344.
On average you lose $344€307 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between $40€35 and $43€39.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $38€34. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $64€57 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $21€19 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 8 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $385€344
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $69€61
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$28−€25
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $41€37
- Compared with the box price
- −$344−€307
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $385.42€343.88$48.18€42.99 per pack
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $16€14 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $16€14 to $27€24 | 18 of 100 | Lose money |
| $27€24 to $38€34 | 28 of 100 | Lose money |
| $38€34 to $49€44 | 23 of 100 | Lose money |
| $49€44 to $60€54 | 14 of 100 | Lose money |
| $60€54 to $72€64 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| $72€64 to $83€74 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $83€74 to $94€84 | 1 in 71 | Lose money |
| $94€84 to $105€94 | 1 in 174 | Lose money |
| $105€94 to $116€104 | 1 in 424 | Lose money |
| $116€104 to $128€114 | 1 in 1,053 | Lose money |
| $128€114 to $139€124 | 1 in 2,273 | Lose money |
| $139€124 to $150€134 | 1 in 10,000 | Lose money |
| $150€134 to $161€144 | 1 in 20,000 | Lose money |
| $161€144 to $172€154 | 1 in 33,333 | Lose money |
| $172€154 to $184€164 | 1 in 50,000 | Lose money |
| $184€164 to $195€174 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $195€174 to $206€184 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $206€184 to $217€194 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $217€194 to $229€204 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $229€204 to $240€214 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $240€214 to $251€224 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $251€224 to $262€234 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $262€234 to $273€244 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $273€244 to $285€254 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $285€254 to $296€264 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $296€264 to $307€274 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $307€274 to $318€284 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $318€284 to $329€294 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $329€294 to $341€304 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $341€304 to $352€314 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $352€314 to $363€324 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $363€324 to $374€334 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $374€334 to $385€344 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $385€344 to $397€354 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $397€354 to $408€364 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $408€364 to $419€374 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | $2.09€1.86 | |
| Common86 per box | 86 per box | $0.17€0.15 | |
| Uncommon24 per box | 24 per box | $0.22€0.19 | |
| Foil common1.1 per box | 1.1 per box | $2.03€1.81 | |
| Foil rare1 in 8.8 boxes | 1 in 8.8 boxes | $11.91€10.62 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 2.9 boxes | 1 in 2.9 boxes | $3.11€2.78 | |
| Total | $41€37 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Foil rare 11of 100 boxes 1 in 8.8 boxes$12€11 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foil rare | 11 of 100 | 1 in 8.8 boxes | 700 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $41€37 | −$344−€307 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $29€25 | −$357−€318 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $18€16 | −$368−€328 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $7€6 | −$378−€338 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 11 per pack | |||
| Foil rare | 1 in 8.8 boxes | 1 in 4.8 to 16 boxes | Estimate, mtg.wtf (magic-search-engine) pack model: Tenth Edition Draft Booster (each card 1 in 70 foil) |
| Foil uncommon | 1 in 2.9 boxes | 1 in 1.6 to 5.3 boxes | Estimate, mtg.wtf (magic-search-engine) pack model: Tenth Edition Draft Booster (each card 1 in 70 foil) |
| Foil common | 1.1 per box | 1 in 1.6 boxes to 2.1 per box | Estimate, mtg.wtf (magic-search-engine) pack model: Tenth Edition Draft Booster (each card 1 in 70 foil) |
| Common | 86 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 24 per box | Pack layout | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Rare | 8.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Painter's Servant (foil) | Foil rare | $76.00€67.81 | $71.92€64.17 |
| Sygg, River Cutthroat (foil) | Foil rare | $52.90€47.20 | $49.98€44.59 |
| Twilight Shepherd (foil) | Foil rare | $44.85€40.02 | $42.33€37.77 |
| Umbral Mantle (foil) | Foil uncommon | $42.16€37.62 | $39.78€35.49 |
| Faerie Macabre (foil) | Foil common | $40.61€36.23 | $38.30€34.17 |
| Seedcradle Witch (foil) | Foil uncommon | $40.47€36.11 | $38.17€34.05 |
| Reflecting Pool (foil) | Foil rare | $37.97€33.88 | $35.79€31.94 |
| Manamorphose (foil) | Foil common | $32.40€28.91 | $30.50€27.21 |
| Devoted Druid (foil) | Foil common | $32.14€28.68 | $30.26€27.00 |
| Plague of Vermin (foil) | Foil rare | $31.43€28.04 | $29.58€26.39 |
| Mana Reflection (foil) | Foil rare | $31.43€28.04 | $29.58€26.39 |
| Knacksaw Clique (foil) | Foil rare | $30.68€27.37 | $28.86€25.75 |
| Everlasting Torment (foil) | Foil rare | $30.36€27.09 | $28.56€25.49 |
| Knollspine Dragon (foil) | Foil rare | $30.25€26.99 | $28.46€25.39 |
| Sunken Ruins (foil) | Foil rare | $29.39€26.22 | $27.64€24.66 |
| Rhys the Redeemed (foil) | Foil rare | $26.88€23.98 | $25.25€22.53 |
| Crimson Wisps (foil) | Foil common | $26.51€23.65 | $24.90€22.22 |
| Painter's Servant | Rare | $25.92€23.13 | $24.35€21.72 |
| Greater Auramancy (foil) | Foil rare | $25.17€22.46 | $23.63€21.09 |
| Helm of the Ghastlord (foil) | Foil common | $24.86€22.18 | $23.34€20.82 |
| Spiteful Visions (foil) | Foil rare | $24.83€22.15 | $23.30€20.79 |
| Mystic Gate (foil) | Foil rare | $23.96€21.38 | $22.48€20.06 |
| Wheel of Sun and Moon (foil) | Foil rare | $22.55€20.12 | $21.14€18.86 |
| Savor the Moment (foil) | Foil rare | $22.30€19.90 | $20.91€18.66 |
| Fire-Lit Thicket (foil) | Foil rare | $21.81€19.46 | $20.44€18.24 |
| Pili-Pala (foil) | Foil common | $21.27€18.98 | $19.93€17.78 |
| Reaper King (foil) | Foil rare | $20.89€18.64 | $19.57€17.46 |
| Prismatic Omen (foil) | Foil rare | $20.32€18.13 | $19.02€16.97 |
| Rite of Consumption (foil) | Foil common | $19.54€17.43 | $18.28€16.31 |
| Cauldron of Souls (foil) | Foil rare | $18.08€16.13 | $16.89€15.07 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.