€51todayIs a The Hobbit bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
€50.92
- Lowest listing
- €46.50
- Per pack
- €5.66
Keep it sealed€16 of cards inside, after selling costs
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth €16 after selling costs. The box costs €51.
On average you lose €35 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Pull rates for this set are well documented.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 2 make money
- 98 lose money
A typical box is worth €12. 1 in 10 boxes is worth €34 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth €4 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- €51
- Cards inside, at market prices
- €29
- Selling costs and bulk
- −€13
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- €16
- Compared with the box price
- −€35
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, €0.25 per card sold, cards under €1.00 go to bulk at €0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- €50.92€5.66 per pack
- Lowest listing
- €46.50
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| €1 to €3 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| €3 to €5 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| €5 to €7 | 10 of 100 | Lose money |
| €7 to €9 | 10 of 100 | Lose money |
| €9 to €11 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| €11 to €13 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| €13 to €15 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| €15 to €17 | 5 of 100 | Lose money |
| €17 to €19 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €19 to €21 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €21 to €23 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €23 to €25 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €25 to €27 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €27 to €29 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €29 to €31 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €31 to €33 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €33 to €35 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €35 to €37 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €37 to €39 | 1 in 77 | Lose money |
| €39 to €41 | 1 in 88 | Lose money |
| €41 to €43 | 1 in 114 | Lose money |
| €43 to €45 | 1 in 137 | Lose money |
| €45 to €47 | 1 in 191 | Lose money |
| €47 to €49 | 1 in 204 | Lose money |
| €49 to €51 | 1 in 243 | Lose money |
| €51 to €53 | 1 in 287 | Make money |
| €53 to €55 | 1 in 376 | Make money |
| €55 or more | 1 in 81 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare1.2 per box | 1.2 per box | €8.35 | |
| Rare9.2 per box | 9.2 per box | €0.28 | |
| Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare1 in 2.7 boxes | 1 in 2.7 boxes | €2.55 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 11 boxes | 1 in 11 boxes | €9.28 | |
| Common67 per box | 67 per box | €0.01 | |
| Uncommon34 per box | 34 per box | €0.01 | |
| Foil basic land1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.1 boxes | €0.28 | |
| Foil rare1 in 1.6 boxes | 1 in 1.6 boxes | €0.32 | |
| Foil common6.5 per box | 6.5 per box | €0.01 | |
| Basic land3.6 per box | 3.6 per box | €0.01 | |
| Foil uncommon2.6 per box | 2.6 per box | €0.01 | |
| Total | €16 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Mythic rare 72of 100 boxes 1.2 per box€8.35 each
- Foil rare 48of 100 boxes 1 in 1.6 boxes€0.32 each
- Foil mythic rare 9of 100 boxes 1 in 11 boxes€9.28 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare | 72 of 100 | 1.2 per box | 12 |
| Foil rare | 48 of 100 | 1 in 1.6 boxes | 83 |
| Foil mythic rare | 9 of 100 | 1 in 11 boxes | 167 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | €16 | −€35 | 98 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | €12 | −€39 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | €8 | −€43 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | €4 | −€47 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 7 per pack | |||
| Common | 63 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 27 per box | Pack layout | |
| Wildcard slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Common | 1 in 2.8 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Rare | 1.6 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Mythic rare | 1 in 4.8 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Uncommon | 6.9 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Mythic rare | 1 in 1.0 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | 1 in 2.7 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Rare | 7.6 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Foil slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Foil uncommon | 2.6 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Foil rare | 1 in 1.6 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Foil mythic rare | 1 in 11 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Foil common | 5.6 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Land slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Common | 3.6 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Foil common | 1 in 1.1 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Foil basic land | 1 in 1.1 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting The Hobbit | |
| Basic land | 3.6 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gleaming Splendor (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €31.30 | €29.49 |
| Gleaming Splendor | Mythic rare | €28.99 | €27.29 |
| Smaug the Magnificent (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €23.17 | €21.76 |
| The Queen of Dale (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €20.93 | €19.63 |
| Smaug the Magnificent | Mythic rare | €20.18 | €18.92 |
| The Queen of Dale | Mythic rare | €20.04 | €18.79 |
| The Lonely Mountain | Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | €14.27 | €13.31 |
| Bilbo, Thief in the Night (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €13.37 | €12.45 |
| Bilbo, Thief in the Night | Mythic rare | €10.71 | €9.92 |
| Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €9.93 | €9.18 |
| Smaug, Wicked Worm | Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | €9.86 | €9.12 |
| The Lonely Mountain | Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | €9.45 | €8.73 |
| Orcrist, Goblin-cleaver | Mythic rare | €9.10 | €8.40 |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €8.71 | €8.02 |
| Thranduil, the Elvenking | Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | €7.94 | €7.29 |
| The Arkenstone // Seek the Heart | Mythic rare | €7.71 | €7.07 |
| Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €7.60 | €6.97 |
| Dancing from Dark to Dawn (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €6.82 | €6.23 |
| Gandalf, Goblins' Bane // Flameshape | Mythic rare | €6.76 | €6.17 |
| Dancing from Dark to Dawn | Mythic rare | €6.31 | €5.74 |
| Beorn the Fierce (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €5.56 | €5.03 |
| Beorn the Fierce | Mythic rare | €5.27 | €4.76 |
| Bard, King of Dale (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €4.98 | €4.48 |
| Bard, King of Dale | Mythic rare | €4.77 | €4.28 |
| Thorin, Mountain-king (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €4.75 | €4.26 |
| Fateful Discovery (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €4.38 | €3.91 |
| Thorin, Mountain-king | Mythic rare | €4.19 | €3.73 |
| Fateful Discovery | Mythic rare | €4.09 | €3.64 |
| Wizard's Staff (foil) | Foil rare | €4.07 | €3.62 |
| Belladonna Took | Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | €4.06 | €3.61 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.