Union Arena Sword Art Online booster display$158today

Is a Sword Art Online booster display worth opening?

Union Arena. 16 packs of 12 cards. Released 2 May 2025. Prices from 15 October 2026.

TCGplayer today

$157.67

Lowest listing
$152.50
Per pack
$9.85

Keep it sealed$104 of cards inside, after selling costs

Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.

See the mathPrice history

Why we'd keep it sealed

The cards inside are worth $104 after selling costs. The box costs $158.

On average you lose $53 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.

Pull rates are still uncertain. The real value could be anywhere from $57 to $208. That's enough to change the verdict.

If you opened 100 boxes

  • 23 make money
  • 77 lose money

A typical box is worth $35. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $342 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $19 or less.

The math, per box

From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.

Per box of 16 packs

Box price on TCGplayer
$158
Cards inside, at market prices
$148
Selling costs and bulk
−$44
Cards inside, after selling costs
$104
Compared with the box price
−$53

From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 13% fee, $0.30 per card sold, cards under $1.00 go to bulk at $0.01.

Cards inside, at market prices
The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on TCGplayer today.
Selling costs and bulk
TCGplayer's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
Cards inside, after selling costs
What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
Compared with the box price
Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.

What the box costs

Today's price on TCGplayer, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.

TCGplayer today
$157.67$9.85 per pack
Lowest listing
$152.50
  • Box price on TCGplayer
  • Cards inside, after selling costs
Box price and the cards inside, day by dayFrom 14 Oct to 15 Oct, the box price went from $158 to $158, and the cards inside, after selling costs, from $104 to $104.$80$100$120$140$160$180Box$158Cards$10414 Oct15 Oct14 Oct: box $158, cards $10415 Oct: box $158, cards $104Box price and the cards inside, day by dayFrom 14 Oct to 15 Oct, the box price went from $158 to $158, and the cards inside, after selling costs, from $104 to $104.$80$100$120$140$160$180Box$158Cards$10414 Oct15 Oct14 Oct: box $158, cards $10415 Oct: box $158, cards $104
On days when the cards line sits above the box line, an average box was worth more than it cost. Selling costs use our defaults.
Show as a table
DayBox priceCards inside, after costs
15 October 2026$157.67$104.40
14 October 2026$157.67$104.40

What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth

Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.

Value of 100,000 simulated boxes77 of every 100 simulated boxes were worth less than the box price of $158.Box price $158Lose moneyMake money0204060$100$200$300$400$500$578+Boxes out of 100Under $38: 56 of 100 boxes$38 to $58: 18 of 100 boxes$58 to $78: 3 of 100 boxes$78 to $98: 1 in 282 boxes$98 to $118: 1 in 3,030 boxes$118 to $138: 1 in 50,000 boxes$138 to $158: 0 of 100 boxes$158 to $178: 1 in 1,515 boxes$178 to $198: 4 of 100 boxes$198 to $218: 2 of 100 boxes$218 to $238: 1 in 154 boxes$238 to $258: 2 of 100 boxes$258 to $278: 1 in 121 boxes$278 to $298: 1 in 763 boxes$298 to $318: 1 in 633 boxes$318 to $338: 2 of 100 boxes$338 to $358: 1 in 107 boxes$358 to $378: 1 in 379 boxes$378 to $398: 1 in 2,041 boxes$398 to $418: 2 of 100 boxes$418 to $438: 1 in 73 boxes$438 to $458: 1 in 398 boxes$458 to $478: 1 in 1,562 boxes$478 to $498: 1 in 128 boxes$498 to $518: 2 of 100 boxes$518 to $538: 1 in 160 boxes$538 to $558: 1 in 508 boxes$558 to $578: 1 in 763 boxes$578 or more: 2 of 100 boxesValue of 100,000 simulated boxes77 of every 100 simulated boxes were worth less than the box price of $158.Box price $158Lose moneyMake money0204060$200$400$578+Boxes out of 100Under $38: 56 of 100 boxes$38 to $58: 18 of 100 boxes$58 to $78: 3 of 100 boxes$78 to $98: 1 in 282 boxes$98 to $118: 1 in 3,030 boxes$118 to $138: 1 in 50,000 boxes$138 to $158: 0 of 100 boxes$158 to $178: 1 in 1,515 boxes$178 to $198: 4 of 100 boxes$198 to $218: 2 of 100 boxes$218 to $238: 1 in 154 boxes$238 to $258: 2 of 100 boxes$258 to $278: 1 in 121 boxes$278 to $298: 1 in 763 boxes$298 to $318: 1 in 633 boxes$318 to $338: 2 of 100 boxes$338 to $358: 1 in 107 boxes$358 to $378: 1 in 379 boxes$378 to $398: 1 in 2,041 boxes$398 to $418: 2 of 100 boxes$418 to $438: 1 in 73 boxes$438 to $458: 1 in 398 boxes$458 to $478: 1 in 1,562 boxes$478 to $498: 1 in 128 boxes$498 to $518: 2 of 100 boxes$518 to $538: 1 in 160 boxes$538 to $558: 1 in 508 boxes$558 to $578: 1 in 763 boxes$578 or more: 2 of 100 boxes
Each bar covers $20 of box value. Bars right of the line are boxes worth at least what you paid.
Show as a table
Box valueBoxes out of 100Result
Under $3856 of 100Lose money
$38 to $5818 of 100Lose money
$58 to $783 of 100Lose money
$78 to $981 in 282Lose money
$98 to $1181 in 3,030Lose money
$118 to $1381 in 50,000Lose money
$138 to $1580 of 100Lose money
$158 to $1781 in 1,515Make money
$178 to $1984 of 100Make money
$198 to $2182 of 100Make money
$218 to $2381 in 154Make money
$238 to $2582 of 100Make money
$258 to $2781 in 121Make money
$278 to $2981 in 763Make money
$298 to $3181 in 633Make money
$318 to $3382 of 100Make money
$338 to $3581 in 107Make money
$358 to $3781 in 379Make money
$378 to $3981 in 2,041Make money
$398 to $4182 of 100Make money
$418 to $4381 in 73Make money
$438 to $4581 in 398Make money
$458 to $4781 in 1,562Make money
$478 to $4981 in 128Make money
$498 to $5182 of 100Make money
$518 to $5381 in 160Make money
$538 to $5581 in 508Make money
$558 to $5781 in 763Make money
$578 or more2 of 100Make money

Where the value comes from

The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.

Card typeHow many per boxAverage card after selling costsAdds to the box
Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)1.1 per box1.1 per box$75.36$79
Super Rare6.0 per box6.0 per box$2.47$15
Common / Uncommon176 per box176 per box$0.05$9.24
Rare8.9 per box8.9 per box$0.13$1.15
Total$104

Chance of a big pull

How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.

Show as a table
Card typeBoxes with at least oneOn averageBoxes for one specific card
Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)Star-marked alternate-art versions of the set's cards, about one per box.66 of 1001.1 per box24

If card prices fall

Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.

Card pricesCards inside, after costsCompared with the boxBoxes that lose moneyVerdict
Today's prices$104−$5377 of 100Keep it sealed
25% lower$75−$8283 of 100Keep it sealed
50% lower$47−$11088 of 100Keep it sealed
75% lower$23−$13499 of 100Keep it sealed

Pull rates we used

Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.

Card typeHow oftenLikely rangeBased on
Common slots, 11 per pack
Common / Uncommon176 per boxPack layout
Rare-or-better slots, 1 per pack
Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)1.1 per box1 in 2.2 boxes to 2.4 per boxEstimate, TCGTalk, Inuyasha (UE23BT) Union Arena guide: pull rates from 3 English boxes (48 packs)
Super Rare6.0 per box3.6 to 10.0 per boxEstimate, TCGTalk, Inuyasha (UE23BT) Union Arena guide: pull rates from 3 English boxes (48 packs)
Rare8.9 per boxThe rest of the slot

Most valuable cards

The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.

CardCard typeTCGplayer priceAfter selling costs
Asuna (037) (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$549.00$477.33
Sinon (091) (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$446.66$388.29
Alice Synthesis Thirty (013) (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$348.65$303.03
Kirito (041) (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$255.32$221.83
Leafa (060) (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$192.49$167.17
Eugeo Synthesis Thirty-Two (SR**)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$190.46$165.40
Sinon (090) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$36.05$31.06
Asuna (Stacia, the Goddess of Creation) (022) (SR*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$25.43$21.82
Kirito (087) (SR*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$20.43$17.47
Sinon (Sun Goddess, Solus) (025) (SR*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$20.15$17.23
Asuna (071) (SR*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$13.00$11.01
Sinon (091)Super Rare$11.36$9.58
Leafa (Earth Goddess, Terraria) (028) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$9.70$8.14
Alice Synthesis Thirty (012) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$9.50$7.97
Asuna (036) (U*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$8.51$7.10
Asuna (037)Super Rare$7.69$6.39
Asuna (049) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$7.63$6.34
Yuuki (080) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$6.25$5.14
Lisbeth (009) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$4.96$4.02
Silica (075) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$4.69$3.78
Sinon (074) (U*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$4.52$3.63
Yui (056) (SR*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$4.46$3.58
Tiese Schtrinen (U*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$4.25$3.40
Kirito (041)Super Rare$4.22$3.37
Leafa (059) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$3.93$3.12
Asuna (Stacia, the Goddess of Creation) (022)Super Rare$3.88$3.08
Eugeo Synthesis Thirty-TwoSuper Rare$2.99$2.30
Kirito (053) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$2.88$2.21
Ronie Arabel (U*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$2.72$2.07
Lisbeth (083) (R*)Alt-art parallel (★ / ★★)$2.39$1.78

How we work this out

We price every card at its TCGplayer market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.

Read the full method