$49€44todayIs a Fate Reforged bundle worth opening?
Market price today
$48.97€43.69
- Lowest listing
- $47.63€42.50
- Per pack
- $5.44€4.85
Keep it sealed$7€6 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $7€6 after selling costs. The box costs $49€44.
On average you lose $42€38 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Some pull rates are estimates, so the real value is likely between $6€5 and $8€7.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $5€5. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $15€13 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $2€2 or less.
Fate Reforged EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price today
- $49€44
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $24€21
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$17−€15
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $7€6
- Compared with the box price
- −$42−€38
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at today's market price.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Marketplace fees and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's market price, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Market price today
- $48.97€43.69$5.44€4.85 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $47.63€42.50
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $4€4 | 35 of 100 | Lose money |
| $4€4 to $6€6 | 26 of 100 | Lose money |
| $6€6 to $9€8 | 16 of 100 | Lose money |
| $9€8 to $11€10 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| $11€10 to $13€12 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $13€12 to $15€14 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $15€14 to $18€16 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $18€16 to $20€18 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $20€18 to $22€20 | 1 in 80 | Lose money |
| $22€20 to $24€22 | 1 in 175 | Lose money |
| $24€22 to $27€24 | 1 in 277 | Lose money |
| $27€24 to $29€26 | 1 in 293 | Lose money |
| $29€26 to $31€28 | 1 in 556 | Lose money |
| $31€28 to $33€30 | 1 in 1,042 | Lose money |
| $33€30 to $36€32 | 1 in 1,724 | Lose money |
| $36€32 to $38€34 | 1 in 3,571 | Lose money |
| $38€34 to $40€36 | 1 in 3,448 | Lose money |
| $40€36 to $42€38 | 1 in 14,286 | Lose money |
| $42€38 to $44€40 | 1 in 20,000 | Lose money |
| $44€40 to $47€42 | 1 in 50,000 | Lose money |
| $47€42 to $49€44 | 1 in 33,333 | Lose money |
| $49€44 to $51€46 | 1 in 50,000 | Make money |
| $51€46 to $53€48 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare1.1 per box | 1.1 per box | $1.93€1.72 | |
| Uncommon27 per box | 27 per box | $0.07€0.07 | |
| Common88 per box | 88 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Rare7.9 per box | 7.9 per box | $0.10€0.09 | |
| Foil rare1 in 3.8 boxes | 1 in 3.8 boxes | $1.23€1.10 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 2.0 boxes | $0.46€0.41 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 26 boxes | 1 in 26 boxes | $4.51€4.03 | |
| Basic land9.0 per box | 9.0 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Foil common1.2 per box | 1.2 per box | $0.08€0.07 | |
| Total | $7€6 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Mythic rare 70of 100 boxes 1.1 per box$1.93€1.72 each
- Foil rare 23of 100 boxes 1 in 3.8 boxes$1.23€1.10 each
- Foil mythic rare 4of 100 boxes 1 in 26 boxes$4.51€4.03 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare | 70 of 100 | 1.1 per box | 8.9 |
| Foil rare | 23 of 100 | 1 in 3.8 boxes | 147 |
| Foil mythic rare | 4 of 100 | 1 in 26 boxes | 263 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $7€6 | −$42−€38 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $5€4 | −$44−€40 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $3€3 | −$46−€41 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $2€2 | −$47−€42 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Fate Reforged pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on October 14, 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
Most valuable Fate Reforged cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Market price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $21.36€19.06 | $20.01€17.86 |
| Ugin, the Spirit Dragon | Mythic rare | $13.14€11.72 | $12.20€10.88 |
| Temporal Trespass (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $11.24€10.03 | $10.40€9.28 |
| Dark Deal (foil) | Foil uncommon | $7.78€6.94 | $7.11€6.34 |
| Monastery Mentor (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $5.93€5.29 | $5.35€4.78 |
| Sage's Reverie (foil) | Foil uncommon | $5.84€5.21 | $5.27€4.70 |
| Temur Sabertooth (foil) | Foil uncommon | $5.53€4.93 | $4.97€4.43 |
| Temporal Trespass | Mythic rare | $4.77€4.26 | $4.26€3.80 |
| Crux of Fate (foil) | Foil rare | $4.37€3.90 | $3.87€3.46 |
| Archfiend of Depravity (foil) | Foil rare | $4.17€3.72 | $3.68€3.28 |
| Silumgar, the Drifting Death (foil) | Foil rare | $4.14€3.69 | $3.65€3.26 |
| Brutal Hordechief (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $4.08€3.64 | $3.60€3.21 |
| Mob Rule (foil) | Foil rare | $4.05€3.61 | $3.56€3.18 |
| Soulfire Grand Master (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.77€3.36 | $3.30€2.94 |
| Merciless Executioner (foil) | Foil uncommon | $3.68€3.28 | $3.21€2.87 |
| Atarka, World Render (foil) | Foil rare | $3.47€3.10 | $3.02€2.70 |
| Dark Deal | Uncommon | $3.30€2.94 | $2.85€2.54 |
| Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury (foil) | Foil rare | $2.91€2.60 | $2.49€2.22 |
| Tasigur, the Golden Fang (foil) | Foil rare | $2.82€2.52 | $2.40€2.14 |
| Gurmag Angler (foil) | Foil common | $2.80€2.50 | $2.38€2.13 |
| Arcbond (foil) | Foil rare | $2.61€2.33 | $2.20€1.96 |
| Wild Slash (foil) | Foil uncommon | $2.56€2.28 | $2.15€1.92 |
| Jeskai Barricade (foil) | Foil uncommon | $2.45€2.19 | $2.05€1.83 |
| Crucible of the Spirit Dragon (foil) | Foil rare | $2.21€1.97 | $1.82€1.62 |
| Palace Siege (foil) | Foil rare | $2.20€1.96 | $1.81€1.61 |
| Palace Siege (foil) | Foil rare | $2.20€1.96 | $1.81€1.61 |
| Brutal Hordechief | Mythic rare | $2.16€1.93 | $1.77€1.58 |
| Monastery Siege (foil) | Foil rare | $1.98€1.77 | $1.60€1.43 |
| Monastery Siege (foil) | Foil rare | $1.98€1.77 | $1.60€1.43 |
| Reality Shift (foil) | Foil uncommon | $1.97€1.76 | $1.59€1.42 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
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