$504€450todayIs a Shards of Alara bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$504.36€450
- Lowest listing
- $504.36€450
- Per pack
- $63.05€56.25
Keep it sealed$14€13 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $14€13 after selling costs. The box costs $504€450.
On average you lose $490€437 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between $14€12 and $16€14.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $13€11. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $27€24 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $4€3 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 8 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $504€450
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $35€31
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$21−€18
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $14€13
- Compared with the box price
- −$490−€437
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $504.36€450$63.05€56.25 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $504.36€450
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $34€30 | 96 of 100 | Lose money |
| $34€30 to $56€50 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $56€50 to $78€70 | 1 in 241 | Lose money |
| $78€70 to $101€90 | 1 in 1,010 | Lose money |
| $101€90 to $123€110 | 1 in 25,000 | Lose money |
| $123€110 to $146€130 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $146€130 to $168€150 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $168€150 to $191€170 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $191€170 to $213€190 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $213€190 to $235€210 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $235€210 to $258€230 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $258€230 to $280€250 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $280€250 to $303€270 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $303€270 to $325€290 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $325€290 to $347€310 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $347€310 to $370€330 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $370€330 to $392€350 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $392€350 to $415€370 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $415€370 to $437€390 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $437€390 to $460€410 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $460€410 to $482€430 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $482€430 to $504€450 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $504€450 to $527€470 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $527€470 to $549€490 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common78 per box | 78 per box | $0.09€0.08 | |
| Rare7.0 per box | 7.0 per box | $0.55€0.49 | |
| Mythic rare1.0 per box | 1.0 per box | $1.88€1.68 | |
| Foil rare1 in 4.2 boxes | 1 in 4.2 boxes | $3.18€2.83 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 30 boxes | 1 in 30 boxes | $11.13€9.93 | |
| Foil common1.1 per box | 1.1 per box | $0.29€0.26 | |
| Uncommon24 per box | 24 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 2.2 boxes | 1 in 2.2 boxes | $0.40€0.36 | |
| Basic land8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Total | $14€13 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Mythic rare 66of 100 boxes 1.0 per box$1.88€1.68 each
- Foil rare 21of 100 boxes 1 in 4.2 boxes$3.18€2.83 each
- Foil mythic rare 3of 100 boxes 1 in 30 boxes$11€9.93 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare | 66 of 100 | 1.0 per box | 15 |
| Foil rare | 21 of 100 | 1 in 4.2 boxes | 225 |
| Foil mythic rare | 3 of 100 | 1 in 30 boxes | 444 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $14€13 | −$490−€437 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $10€9 | −$494−€441 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $7€6 | −$497−€444 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $3€3 | −$501−€447 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ad Nauseam (foil) | Foil rare | $60.71€54.17 | $57.40€51.21 |
| Mayael the Anima (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $36.77€32.81 | $34.65€30.92 |
| Tezzeret the Seeker (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $21.75€19.41 | $20.39€18.19 |
| Rafiq of the Many (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $19.54€17.43 | $18.28€16.31 |
| Elspeth, Knight-Errant (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $18.41€16.43 | $17.21€15.36 |
| Tezzeret the Seeker | Mythic rare | $13.98€12.47 | $13.00€11.60 |
| Memory Erosion (foil) | Foil rare | $13.16€11.74 | $12.22€10.90 |
| Kresh the Bloodbraided (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $12.81€11.43 | $11.89€10.61 |
| Relic of Progenitus (foil) | Foil common | $12.65€11.29 | $11.74€10.48 |
| Prince of Thralls (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $11.88€10.60 | $11.01€9.82 |
| Ethersworn Canonist (foil) | Foil rare | $11.51€10.27 | $10.65€9.51 |
| Death Baron (foil) | Foil rare | $10.73€9.57 | $9.91€8.84 |
| Godsire (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $9.91€8.84 | $9.13€8.15 |
| Ad Nauseam | Rare | $9.68€8.64 | $8.92€7.96 |
| Ajani Vengeant (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $9.62€8.58 | $8.86€7.90 |
| Relic of Progenitus | Common | $8.19€7.31 | $7.50€6.69 |
| Sedris, the Traitor King (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $7.35€6.56 | $6.70€5.98 |
| Empyrial Archangel (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $6.79€6.06 | $6.17€5.51 |
| Mycoloth (foil) | Foil rare | $6.72€6.00 | $6.11€5.45 |
| Sharuum the Hegemon (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $6.66€5.94 | $6.04€5.39 |
| Knight of the White Orchid (foil) | Foil rare | $6.44€5.75 | $5.84€5.21 |
| Sarkhan Vol (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $6.33€5.65 | $5.74€5.12 |
| Cunning Lethemancer (foil) | Foil rare | $6.16€5.50 | $5.58€4.98 |
| Ranger of Eos (foil) | Foil rare | $5.91€5.27 | $5.33€4.76 |
| Scourglass (foil) | Foil rare | $4.75€4.24 | $4.23€3.78 |
| Titanic Ultimatum (foil) | Foil rare | $4.67€4.17 | $4.16€3.71 |
| Lich's Mirror (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $4.57€4.08 | $4.06€3.63 |
| Knight-Captain of Eos (foil) | Foil rare | $4.54€4.05 | $4.03€3.60 |
| Memory Erosion | Rare | $4.36€3.89 | $3.86€3.45 |
| Etherium Sculptor (foil) | Foil common | $4.29€3.83 | $3.80€3.39 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.