$250€223todayIs a Conflux bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$249.98€223.04
- Lowest listing
- $207.35€185
- Per pack
- $31.25€27.88
Keep it sealed$15€14 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $15€14 after selling costs. The box costs $250€223.
On average you lose $235€209 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between $15€13 and $16€15.
No prices yet for: Basic land. We count them as worth nothing.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $14€12. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $27€24 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $6€6 or less.
Conflux EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 8 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $250€223
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $32€29
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$17−€15
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $15€14
- Compared with the box price
- −$235−€209
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $249.98€223.04$31.25€27.88 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $207.35€185
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $15€13 | 54 of 100 | Lose money |
| $15€13 to $26€23 | 35 of 100 | Lose money |
| $26€23 to $37€33 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| $37€33 to $48€43 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $48€43 to $59€53 | 1 in 248 | Lose money |
| $59€53 to $71€63 | 1 in 1,538 | Lose money |
| $71€63 to $82€73 | 1 in 14,286 | Lose money |
| $82€73 to $93€83 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $93€83 to $104€93 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $104€93 to $115€103 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $115€103 to $127€113 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $127€113 to $138€123 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $138€123 to $149€133 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $149€133 to $160€143 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $160€143 to $172€153 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $172€153 to $183€163 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $183€163 to $194€173 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $194€173 to $205€183 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $205€183 to $216€193 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $216€193 to $228€203 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $228€203 to $239€213 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $239€213 to $250€223 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $250€223 to $261€233 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $261€233 to $272€243 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare7.0 per box | 7.0 per box | $0.88€0.79 | |
| Common78 per box | 78 per box | $0.05€0.04 | |
| Uncommon24 per box | 24 per box | $0.11€0.10 | |
| Foil rare1 in 4.2 boxes | 1 in 4.2 boxes | $4.51€4.02 | |
| Mythic rare1.0 per box | 1.0 per box | $0.79€0.70 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 30 boxes | 1 in 30 boxes | $9.60€8.56 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 2.2 boxes | 1 in 2.2 boxes | $0.57€0.51 | |
| Foil common1.1 per box | 1.1 per box | $0.18€0.16 | |
| Basic land8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | $15€14 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Mythic rare 66of 100 boxes 1.0 per box$0.79€0.70 each
- Foil rare 21of 100 boxes 1 in 4.2 boxes$4.51€4.02 each
- Foil mythic rare 3of 100 boxes 1 in 30 boxes$9.60€8.56 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare | 66 of 100 | 1.0 per box | 10 |
| Foil rare | 21 of 100 | 1 in 4.2 boxes | 148 |
| Foil mythic rare | 3 of 100 | 1 in 30 boxes | 296 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $15€14 | −$235−€209 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $10€9 | −$240−€214 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $6€6 | −$244−€217 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $3€2 | −$247−€221 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Conflux pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
Most valuable Conflux cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exotic Orchard (foil) | Foil rare | $31.09€27.74 | $29.26€26.10 |
| Maelstrom Archangel (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $27.75€24.76 | $26.08€23.27 |
| Kederekt Parasite (foil) | Foil rare | $26.65€23.78 | $25.04€22.34 |
| Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $23.83€21.26 | $22.36€19.95 |
| Font of Mythos (foil) | Foil rare | $22.61€20.17 | $21.20€18.91 |
| Noble Hierarch (foil) | Foil rare | $18.76€16.74 | $17.54€15.65 |
| Progenitus (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $17.04€15.20 | $15.90€14.19 |
| Master Transmuter (foil) | Foil rare | $13.53€12.07 | $12.57€11.22 |
| Font of Mythos | Rare | $10.49€9.36 | $9.69€8.64 |
| Noble Hierarch | Rare | $10.08€8.99 | $9.29€8.29 |
| Inkwell Leviathan (foil) | Foil rare | $10.01€8.93 | $9.23€8.23 |
| Child of Alara (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $9.56€8.53 | $8.80€7.85 |
| Knight of the Reliquary (foil) | Foil rare | $6.96€6.21 | $6.33€5.65 |
| Conflux (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $6.42€5.73 | $5.82€5.19 |
| Scattershot Archer (foil) | Foil common | $6.40€5.71 | $5.80€5.17 |
| Soul's Majesty (foil) | Foil rare | $6.30€5.62 | $5.70€5.09 |
| Path to Exile (foil) | Foil uncommon | $5.95€5.31 | $5.37€4.79 |
| Malfegor (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $5.65€5.04 | $5.09€4.54 |
| Kederekt Parasite | Rare | $5.28€4.71 | $4.73€4.22 |
| Ancient Ziggurat (foil) | Foil uncommon | $4.91€4.38 | $4.38€3.91 |
| Sigil of the Empty Throne (foil) | Foil rare | $4.77€4.26 | $4.26€3.80 |
| Reliquary Tower (foil) | Foil uncommon | $4.57€4.08 | $4.06€3.63 |
| Celestial Purge (foil) | Foil uncommon | $4.24€3.78 | $3.74€3.34 |
| Apocalypse Hydra (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $4.12€3.68 | $3.64€3.25 |
| Banefire (foil) | Foil rare | $4.09€3.65 | $3.61€3.22 |
| Ethersworn Adjudicator (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.71€3.31 | $3.24€2.89 |
| Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker | Mythic rare | $3.69€3.29 | $3.22€2.88 |
| Countersquall (foil) | Foil uncommon | $3.51€3.13 | $3.05€2.72 |
| Wall of Reverence (foil) | Foil rare | $3.46€3.09 | $3.01€2.69 |
| Mirror-Sigil Sergeant (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.23€2.88 | $2.79€2.49 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
More Magic boxes
- Magic Magic 2010Draft Boosters Keep it sealed $113€100 of cards for a $493€440 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Alara RebornDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $49€44 of cards for a $516€460 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Alara RebornBundle Keep it sealed $11€10 of cards for a $265€236 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic ConfluxDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $69€62 of cards for a $448€400 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Shards of AlaraDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $65€58 of cards for a $616€549 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Shards of AlaraBundle Keep it sealed $14€13 of cards for a $504€450 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
