$471€420todayIs a Burning Shadows Elite Trainer Box worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$470.98€420.22
- Lowest listing
- $392.28€350
- Per pack
- $58.87€52.53
Keep it sealed$74€66 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $74€66 after selling costs. The box costs $471€420.
On average you lose $397€355 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Pull rates are still uncertain. The real value could be anywhere from $53€47 to $101€90.
No prices yet for: Basic Energy. We count them as worth nothing.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $56€50. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $106€95 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $33€30 or less.
Burning Shadows EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 8 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $471€420
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $90€80
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$16−€14
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $74€66
- Compared with the box price
- −$397−€355
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $470.98€420.22$58.87€52.53 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $392.28€350
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| $0€0 to $23€20 | 1 in 75 | Lose money |
| $23€20 to $45€40 | 29 of 100 | Lose money |
| $45€40 to $67€60 | 35 of 100 | Lose money |
| $67€60 to $90€80 | 18 of 100 | Lose money |
| $90€80 to $112€100 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| $112€100 to $135€120 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $135€120 to $157€140 | 1 in 146 | Lose money |
| $157€140 to $180€160 | 1 in 676 | Lose money |
| $180€160 to $202€180 | 1 in 2,128 | Lose money |
| $202€180 to $224€200 | 1 in 25,000 | Lose money |
| $224€200 to $247€220 | 1 in 33,333 | Lose money |
| $247€220 to $269€240 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $269€240 to $292€260 | 1 in 769 | Lose money |
| $292€260 to $314€280 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $314€280 to $336€300 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $336€300 to $359€320 | 1 in 130 | Lose money |
| $359€320 to $381€340 | 1 in 332 | Lose money |
| $381€340 to $404€360 | 1 in 1,149 | Lose money |
| $404€360 to $426€380 | 1 in 4,000 | Lose money |
| $426€380 to $449€400 | 1 in 16,667 | Lose money |
| $449€400 to $471€420 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $471€420 to $493€440 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $493€440 or more | 1 in 741 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rainbow Rare1 in 1.4 boxes | 1 in 1.4 boxes | $35.58€31.75 | |
| Full Art2.0 per box | 2.0 per box | $10.76€9.60 | |
| Pokémon-GX4.0 per box | 4.0 per box | $3.99€3.56 | |
| Gold Secret Rare1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 2.0 boxes | $17.60€15.70 | |
| Reverse Holo8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | $0.20€0.17 | |
| Common40 per box | 40 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Uncommon24 per box | 24 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Rare / Holo Rare1 in 1.3 boxes | 1 in 1.3 boxes | $0.18€0.16 | |
| Basic Energy8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | $74€66 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Full Art 90of 100 boxes Full-art Pokémon (EX, GX or V) and full-art Supporter cards. 2.0 per box$11€9.60 each
- Rainbow Rare 52of 100 boxes Rainbow-foil secret rare versions of GX, V, VMAX and Supporter cards. 1 in 1.4 boxes$36€32 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full ArtFull-art Pokémon (EX, GX or V) and full-art Supporter cards. | 90 of 100 | 2.0 per box | 8.5 |
| Rainbow RareRainbow-foil secret rare versions of GX, V, VMAX and Supporter cards. | 52 of 100 | 1 in 1.4 boxes | 19 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $74€66 | −$397−€355 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $55€49 | −$416−€371 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $35€32 | −$436−€389 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $16€15 | −$455−€406 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Burning Shadows pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 5 per pack | |||
| Common | 40 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 24 per box | Pack layout | |
| Reverse holo slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Reverse Holo | 8.0 per box | Pack layout | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Gold Secret Rare | 1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 4.9 boxes to 1.2 per box | Estimate |
| Rainbow Rare | 1 in 1.4 boxes | 1 in 3.5 boxes to 1.7 per box | Estimate |
| Full Art | 2.0 per box | 1 in 1.1 boxes to 4.4 per box | Estimate |
| Pokémon-GX | 4.0 per box | 1.8 to 8.7 per box | Estimate |
| Rare / Holo Rare | 1 in 1.3 boxes | The rest of the slot | |
| Energy slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Basic Energy | 8.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable Burning Shadows cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard GX (150) | Rainbow Rare | $285.80€255.00 | $271.23€242.00 |
| Fairy Energy (169) | Gold Secret Rare | $64.93€57.93 | $61.40€54.78 |
| Acerola (142) | Full Art | $41.74€37.24 | $39.37€35.13 |
| Gardevoir GX (159) | Rainbow Rare | $36.02€32.14 | $33.94€30.28 |
| Darkrai GX (158) | Rainbow Rare | $34.90€31.14 | $32.88€29.33 |
| Darkness Energy (168) | Gold Secret Rare | $33.29€29.70 | $31.34€27.97 |
| Wicke (147) | Full Art | $22.42€20.00 | $21.02€18.75 |
| Guzma (143) | Full Art | $20.22€18.04 | $18.93€16.89 |
| Escape Rope (163) | Gold Secret Rare | $17.92€15.99 | $16.75€14.94 |
| Machamp GX (154) | Rainbow Rare | $16.60€14.81 | $15.49€13.82 |
| Fire Energy (167) | Gold Secret Rare | $16.33€14.57 | $15.23€13.59 |
| Marshadow GX (156) | Rainbow Rare | $15.76€14.06 | $14.69€13.11 |
| Ho-Oh GX (131) | Full Art | $15.50€13.83 | $14.45€12.89 |
| Gardevoir GX (140) | Full Art | $14.62€13.04 | $13.60€12.14 |
| Charizard GX (20) | Pokémon-GX | $14.37€12.82 | $13.37€11.93 |
| Tapu Fini GX (152) | Rainbow Rare | $14.31€12.77 | $13.32€11.88 |
| Darkrai GX (139) | Full Art | $13.95€12.45 | $12.98€11.58 |
| Alolan Muk GX (157) | Rainbow Rare | $13.83€12.34 | $12.86€11.47 |
| Lycanroc GX (155) | Rainbow Rare | $13.30€11.87 | $12.36€11.03 |
| Noivern GX (160) | Rainbow Rare | $13.16€11.74 | $12.22€10.90 |
| Salazzle GX (151) | Rainbow Rare | $12.96€11.56 | $12.03€10.73 |
| Necrozma GX (153) | Rainbow Rare | $12.05€10.75 | $11.17€9.96 |
| Golisopod GX (148) | Rainbow Rare | $11.76€10.49 | $10.89€9.72 |
| Tapu Bulu GX (149) | Rainbow Rare | $10.28€9.17 | $9.48€8.46 |
| Rescue Stretcher (165) | Gold Secret Rare | $9.93€8.86 | $9.15€8.17 |
| Machamp GX (135) | Full Art | $9.62€8.58 | $8.86€7.90 |
| Plumeria (145) | Full Art | $8.38€7.48 | $7.68€6.86 |
| Bodybuilding Dumbbells (161) | Gold Secret Rare | $7.96€7.10 | $7.28€6.50 |
| Sophocles (146) | Full Art | $7.12€6.35 | $6.48€5.78 |
| Ho-Oh GX (21) | Pokémon-GX | $7.05€6.29 | $6.42€5.73 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
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