€281todayIs a Sword & Shield Elite Trainer Box worth opening?
Cardmarket today
€281.12
- Lowest listing
- €235
- Per pack
- €35.14
Keep it sealed€17 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth €17 after selling costs. The box costs €281.
On average you lose €264 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Some pull rates are estimates, so the real value is likely between €15 and €19.
No prices yet for: Basic Energy. We count them as €0.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth €12. 1 in 10 boxes is worth €38 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth €4 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 8 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- €281
- Cards inside, at market prices
- €30
- Selling costs and bulk
- −€13
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- €17
- Compared with the box price
- −€264
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, €0.25 per card sold, cards under €1.00 go to bulk at €0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- €281.12€35.14 per pack
- Lowest listing
- €235
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under €11 | 47 of 100 | Lose money |
| €11 to €21 | 31 of 100 | Lose money |
| €21 to €31 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| €31 to €41 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €41 to €51 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €51 to €61 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €61 to €71 | 1 in 72 | Lose money |
| €71 to €81 | 1 in 256 | Lose money |
| €81 to €91 | 1 in 806 | Lose money |
| €91 to €101 | 1 in 505 | Lose money |
| €101 to €111 | 1 in 943 | Lose money |
| €111 to €121 | 1 in 5,882 | Lose money |
| €121 to €131 | 1 in 16,667 | Lose money |
| €131 to €141 | 1 in 14,286 | Lose money |
| €141 to €151 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| €151 to €161 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €161 to €171 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €171 to €181 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €181 to €191 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €191 to €201 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €201 to €211 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €211 to €221 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €221 to €231 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €231 to €241 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €241 to €251 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €251 to €261 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €261 to €271 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €271 to €281 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €281 to €291 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| €291 to €301 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| €301 to €311 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pokémon VMAX / VSTAR1 in 2.2 boxes | 1 in 2.2 boxes | €9.58 | |
| Reverse Holo8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | €0.51 | |
| Full Art1 in 4.5 boxes | 1 in 4.5 boxes | €8.57 | |
| Rare / Holo Rare6.3 per box | 6.3 per box | €0.30 | |
| Pokémon V1 in 1.2 boxes | 1 in 1.2 boxes | €1.63 | |
| Rainbow Rare1 in 15 boxes | 1 in 15 boxes | €16.12 | |
| Common40 per box | 40 per box | €0.02 | |
| Gold Secret Rare1 in 14 boxes | 1 in 14 boxes | €10.73 | |
| Uncommon24 per box | 24 per box | €0.01 | |
| Basic Energy8.0 per box | 8.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | €17 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Full Art 20of 100 boxes Full-art Pokémon (EX, GX or V) and full-art Supporter cards. 1 in 4.5 boxes€8.57 each
- Rainbow Rare 7of 100 boxes Rainbow-foil secret rare versions of GX, V, VMAX and Supporter cards. 1 in 15 boxes€16 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full ArtFull-art Pokémon (EX, GX or V) and full-art Supporter cards. | 20 of 100 | 1 in 4.5 boxes | 67 |
| Rainbow RareRainbow-foil secret rare versions of GX, V, VMAX and Supporter cards. | 7 of 100 | 1 in 15 boxes | 134 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | €17 | −€264 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | €11 | −€270 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | €7 | −€274 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | €3 | −€278 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 5 per pack | |||
| Common | 40 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 24 per box | Pack layout | |
| Reverse holo slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Reverse Holo | 8.0 per box | Pack layout | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Pokémon V | 1 in 1.2 boxes | 1 in 1.9 boxes to 1.3 per box | Estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Evolving Skies Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs |
| Pokémon VMAX / VSTAR | 1 in 2.2 boxes | 1 in 1.4 to 3.6 boxes | Estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Evolving Skies Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs |
| Full Art | 1 in 4.5 boxes | 1 in 2.8 to 7.2 boxes | Estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Evolving Skies Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs |
| Rainbow Rare | 1 in 15 boxes | 1 in 9.3 to 24 boxes | Estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Evolving Skies Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs |
| Gold Secret Rare | 1 in 14 boxes | 1 in 8.6 to 22 boxes | Estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Evolving Skies Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs |
| Rare / Holo Rare | 6.3 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Energy slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Basic Energy | 8.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snorlax VMAX (142) | Pokémon VMAX / VSTAR | €48.04 | €45.39 |
| Snorlax VMAX (206) | Rainbow Rare | €46.99 | €44.39 |
| Marnie (200) | Full Art | €34.32 | €32.35 |
| Snorlax V (197) | Full Art | €27.58 | €25.95 |
| Zacian V (211) | Rainbow Rare | €24.73 | €23.24 |
| Zamazenta V (212) | Rainbow Rare | €20.56 | €19.28 |
| Air Balloon (213) | Gold Secret Rare | €17.19 | €16.08 |
| Marnie (208) | Rainbow Rare | €16.83 | €15.74 |
| Quick Ball (216) | Gold Secret Rare | €15.84 | €14.80 |
| Lapras VMAX (203) | Rainbow Rare | €15.34 | €14.32 |
| Morpeko VMAX (204) | Rainbow Rare | €13.16 | €12.25 |
| Hitmonchan (95), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €11.31 | €10.49 |
| Lapras (48), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €10.64 | €9.86 |
| Torkoal V (188) | Full Art | €8.76 | €8.07 |
| Pikachu (65), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €8.45 | €7.78 |
| Snorlax V (141) | Pokémon V | €8.19 | €7.53 |
| Zamazenta V (196) | Full Art | €8.05 | €7.40 |
| Lapras V (189) | Full Art | €7.84 | €7.20 |
| Ordinary Rod (215) | Gold Secret Rare | €7.80 | €7.16 |
| Zacian V (195) | Full Art | €7.68 | €7.05 |
| Morpeko V (190) | Full Art | €7.58 | €6.95 |
| Haunter (84), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €7.06 | €6.46 |
| Lapras (48) | Rare / Holo Rare | €7.05 | €6.45 |
| Lapras VMAX (50) | Pokémon VMAX / VSTAR | €7.05 | €6.45 |
| Stonjourner VMAX (205) | Rainbow Rare | €6.94 | €6.34 |
| Sableye V (194) | Full Art | €6.83 | €6.24 |
| Bede (199) | Full Art | €5.80 | €5.26 |
| Bede (207) | Rainbow Rare | €5.79 | €5.25 |
| Galarian Rapidash (82), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €5.76 | €5.22 |
| Metal Saucer (214) | Gold Secret Rare | €5.39 | €4.87 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.