$190todayIs a Mercurial Heart (1st Edition) booster display worth opening?
TCGplayer today
$189.99
- Lowest listing
- $190
- Per pack
- $9.50
Toss-up$428 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why it's a toss-up
The cards inside are worth $428 after selling costs. The box costs $190.
But 90 of 100 boxes lose money. A few big pulls carry the average.
Pull rates are still uncertain. The real value could be anywhere from $211 to $1,012.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 10 make money
- 90 lose money
A typical box is worth $47. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $231 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $23 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 20 packs
- Box price on TCGplayer
- $190
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $526
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$98
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $428
- Compared with the box price
- +$238
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 13% fee, $0.30 per card sold, cards under $1.00 go to bulk at $0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on TCGplayer today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- TCGplayer's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on TCGplayer, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- TCGplayer today
- $189.99$9.50 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $190
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $440 | 94 of 100 | Make money |
| $440 to $690 | 1 in 303 | Make money |
| $690 to $940 | 1 in 270 | Make money |
| $940 to $1,190 | 1 in 5,000 | Make money |
| $1,190 to $1,440 | 1 in 33,333 | Make money |
| $1,440 to $1,690 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $1,690 to $1,940 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $1,940 to $2,190 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $2,190 to $2,440 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $2,440 to $2,690 | 1 in 193 | Make money |
| $2,690 to $2,940 | 1 in 1,786 | Make money |
| $2,940 to $3,190 | 1 in 6,667 | Make money |
| $3,190 to $3,440 | 1 in 16,667 | Make money |
| $3,440 to $3,690 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $3,690 to $3,940 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $3,940 to $4,190 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $4,190 to $4,440 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $4,440 to $4,690 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $4,690 to $4,940 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $4,940 to $5,190 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $5,190 to $5,440 | 1 in 50,000 | Make money |
| $5,440 to $5,690 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $5,690 to $5,940 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $5,940 to $6,190 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $6,190 to $6,440 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $6,440 to $6,690 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $6,690 to $6,940 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $6,940 or more | 5 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collector Ultra Rare1 in 20 boxes | 1 in 20 boxes | $6,959.70 | |
| Collector Super Rare1 in 15 boxes | 1 in 15 boxes | $491.17 | |
| Foil (common to super rare)12 per box | 12 per box | $1.41 | |
| Ultra Rare1.5 per box | 1.5 per box | $10.95 | |
| Super Rare5.0 per box | 5.0 per box | $1.84 | |
| Common / Uncommon126 per box | 126 per box | $0.02 | |
| Rare15 per box | 15 per box | $0.13 | |
| Total | $428 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Ultra Rare 78of 100 boxes The highest regular rarity, a few per set. 1.5 per box$11 each
- Collector Super Rare 6of 100 boxes Alternate-art foil collector cards (CSR), the main chase of a box. 1 in 15 boxes$491 each
- Collector Ultra Rare 5of 100 boxes Usually a single CUR per set, by far the rarest pull. 1 in 20 boxes$6,960 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra RareThe highest regular rarity, a few per set. | 78 of 100 | 1.5 per box | 6.0 |
| Collector Super RareAlternate-art foil collector cards (CSR), the main chase of a box. | 6 of 100 | 1 in 15 boxes | 165 |
| Collector Ultra RareUsually a single CUR per set, by far the rarest pull. | 5 of 100 | 1 in 20 boxes | 20 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $428 | +$238 | 90 of 100 | Toss-up |
| 25% lower | $319 | +$129 | 91 of 100 | Toss-up |
| 50% lower | $212 | +$22 | 93 of 100 | Toss-up |
| 75% lower | $105 | −$85 | 95 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other card slots, 8 per pack | |||
| Collector Ultra Rare | 1 in 20 boxes | 1 in 6.5 to 61 boxes | Estimate |
| Collector Super Rare | 1 in 15 boxes | 1 in 9.6 to 23 boxes | Estimate, Weebs of the Shore, Fractured Crown product sheet (PDF) |
| Ultra Rare | 1.5 per box | 1 in 2.0 boxes to 4.6 per box | Estimate |
| Super Rare | 5.0 per box | 1.6 to 15 per box | Estimate |
| Rare | 15 per box | 6.2 to 37 per box | Estimate |
| Foil (common to super rare) | 12 per box | 4.9 to 29 per box | Estimate |
| Common / Uncommon | 126 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | TCGplayer price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan, Shadowreaver (CUR) | Collector Ultra Rare | $8,000.00 | $6,959.70 |
| Tristan, Underhanded (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $2,999.95 | $2,609.66 |
| Atmos Armor Type-Ares (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $750.00 | $652.20 |
| Prima Materia (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $400.00 | $347.70 |
| Naia, Diviner of Fortunes (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $375.00 | $325.95 |
| Penumbral Waltz (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $371.66 | $323.04 |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $350.78 | $304.88 |
| Ravishing Finale (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $315.00 | $273.75 |
| Cordelia, Aurous Kaiser (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $249.99 | $217.19 |
| Curse Amplification (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $247.49 | $215.02 |
| Atmos Armor Type-Hermes (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $79.99 | $69.29 |
| Vainglory Retribution (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $74.10 | $64.17 |
| Shadow's Claw | Ultra Rare | $42.02 | $36.26 |
| Icebound Slam (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $19.66 | $16.80 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | Ultra Rare | $18.05 | $15.40 |
| Tideholder Claymore (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $17.74 | $15.13 |
| Tristan, Hired Blade (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $16.99 | $14.48 |
| Mercurial Heart | Ultra Rare | $16.63 | $14.17 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | Ultra Rare | $14.45 | $12.27 |
| Lost in Thought (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $14.44 | $12.26 |
| Verdigris Decree (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $12.63 | $10.69 |
| Twilight Slime (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $10.59 | $8.91 |
| Verdigris Decree | Super Rare | $10.44 | $8.78 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | Ultra Rare | $10.17 | $8.55 |
| Vermilion Decree | Super Rare | $10.07 | $8.46 |
| Tideholder Claymore | Super Rare | $9.77 | $8.20 |
| Penumbral Waltz (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $8.62 | $7.20 |
| Mercenary's Blade (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $8.49 | $7.09 |
| Reduce to Ash (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $7.99 | $6.65 |
| Eternal Magistrate (foil) | Foil (common to super rare) | $7.88 | $6.56 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its TCGplayer market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.