$165todayIs a Radiant Origins (1st Edition) booster display worth opening?
TCGplayer today
$165.42
- Lowest listing
- $165.91
- Per pack
- $6.89
Rip it$402 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd rip it
The cards inside are worth $402 after selling costs. The box costs $165.
Most boxes come out ahead: only 46 of 100 boxes lose money.
Pull rates are still uncertain. The real value could be anywhere from $234 to $1,147. That's enough to change the verdict.
No prices yet for: Collector Ultra Rare. We count them as $0.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 54 make money
- 46 lose money
A typical box is worth $178. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $1,063 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $83 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 24 packs
- Box price on TCGplayer
- $165
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $541
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$139
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $402
- Compared with the box price
- +$237
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 13% fee, $0.30 per card sold, cards under $1.00 go to bulk at $0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on TCGplayer today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- TCGplayer's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on TCGplayer, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- TCGplayer today
- $165.42$6.89 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $165.91
- Box price on TCGplayer
- Cards inside, after selling costs
Show as a table
| Day | Box price | Cards inside, after costs |
|---|---|---|
| 15 October 2026 | $165.42 | $402.40 |
| 14 October 2026 | $165.42 | $422.81 |
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $65 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $65 to $115 | 20 of 100 | Lose money |
| $115 to $165 | 22 of 100 | Lose money |
| $165 to $215 | 11 of 100 | Make money |
| $215 to $265 | 4 of 100 | Make money |
| $265 to $315 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| $315 to $365 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| $365 to $415 | 3 of 100 | Make money |
| $415 to $465 | 3 of 100 | Make money |
| $465 to $515 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| $515 to $565 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| $565 to $615 | 3 of 100 | Make money |
| $615 to $665 | 3 of 100 | Make money |
| $665 to $715 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| $715 to $765 | 1 in 73 | Make money |
| $765 to $815 | 1 in 84 | Make money |
| $815 to $865 | 1 in 101 | Make money |
| $865 to $915 | 1 in 141 | Make money |
| $915 to $965 | 1 in 156 | Make money |
| $965 to $1,015 | 1 in 155 | Make money |
| $1,015 to $1,065 | 1 in 158 | Make money |
| $1,065 to $1,115 | 1 in 146 | Make money |
| $1,115 to $1,165 | 1 in 138 | Make money |
| $1,165 to $1,215 | 1 in 194 | Make money |
| $1,215 to $1,265 | 1 in 288 | Make money |
| $1,265 to $1,315 | 1 in 256 | Make money |
| $1,315 to $1,365 | 1 in 192 | Make money |
| $1,365 to $1,415 | 1 in 131 | Make money |
| $1,415 to $1,465 | 1 in 150 | Make money |
| $1,465 to $1,515 | 1 in 242 | Make money |
| $1,515 to $1,565 | 1 in 282 | Make money |
| $1,565 to $1,615 | 1 in 225 | Make money |
| $1,615 to $1,665 | 1 in 190 | Make money |
| $1,665 to $1,715 | 1 in 205 | Make money |
| $1,715 to $1,765 | 1 in 317 | Make money |
| $1,765 to $1,815 | 1 in 340 | Make money |
| $1,815 to $1,865 | 1 in 241 | Make money |
| $1,865 to $1,915 | 1 in 283 | Make money |
| $1,915 or more | 2 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collector Super Rare1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 2.0 boxes | $540.32 | |
| Foil (common to super rare)12 per box | 12 per box | $7.03 | |
| Super Rare5.0 per box | 5.0 per box | $4.32 | |
| Ultra Rare1.5 per box | 1.5 per box | $12.89 | |
| Rare15 per box | 15 per box | $0.29 | |
| Common / Uncommon254 per box | 254 per box | $0.01 | |
| Collector Ultra Rare1 in 20 boxes | 1 in 20 boxes | No price yet | |
| Total | $402 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Ultra Rare 78of 100 boxes The highest regular rarity, a few per set. 1.5 per box$13 each
- Collector Super Rare 39of 100 boxes Alternate-art foil collector cards (CSR), the main chase of a box. 1 in 2.0 boxes$540 each
- Collector Ultra Rare 5of 100 boxes Usually a single CUR per set, by far the rarest pull. 1 in 20 boxesNo price yet
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultra RareThe highest regular rarity, a few per set. | 78 of 100 | 1.5 per box | 23 |
| Collector Super RareAlternate-art foil collector cards (CSR), the main chase of a box. | 39 of 100 | 1 in 2.0 boxes | 94 |
| Collector Ultra RareUsually a single CUR per set, by far the rarest pull. | 5 of 100 | 1 in 20 boxes |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $402 | +$237 | 46 of 100 | Rip it |
| 25% lower | $300 | +$135 | 58 of 100 | Toss-up |
| 50% lower | $199 | +$33 | 65 of 100 | Toss-up |
| 75% lower | $98 | −$68 | 82 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other card slots, 12 per pack | |||
| Collector Ultra Rare | 1 in 20 boxes | 1 in 6.5 to 61 boxes | Estimate |
| Collector Super Rare | 1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 6.1 boxes to 1.5 per box | Estimate |
| Ultra Rare | 1.5 per box | 1 in 2.0 boxes to 4.6 per box | Estimate |
| Super Rare | 5.0 per box | 1.6 to 15 per box | Estimate |
| Rare | 15 per box | 6.2 to 37 per box | Estimate |
| Foil (common to super rare) | 12 per box | 4.9 to 29 per box | Estimate |
| Common / Uncommon | 254 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | TCGplayer price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire (002C) | Collector Super Rare | $1,999.99 | $1,739.69 |
| Spirit of Serene Fire (004A) | Collector Super Rare | $1,799.99 | $1,565.69 |
| Spirit of Serene Fire (004B) | Collector Super Rare | $1,698.99 | $1,477.82 |
| Spirit of Serene Water (007B) | Collector Super Rare | $1,499.99 | $1,304.69 |
| Spirit of Serene Wind (010B) | Collector Super Rare | $1,499.99 | $1,304.69 |
| Spirit of Serene Water (007A) | Collector Super Rare | $1,399.98 | $1,217.68 |
| Spirit of Serene Fire (004C) | Collector Super Rare | $1,199.99 | $1,043.69 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water (005B) | Collector Super Rare | $1,119.99 | $974.09 |
| Spirit of Serene Water (007C) | Collector Super Rare | $999.99 | $869.69 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind (008B) | Collector Super Rare | $831.59 | $723.18 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire (002A) | Collector Super Rare | $798.00 | $693.96 |
| Spirit of Serene Wind (010C) | Collector Super Rare | $699.99 | $608.69 |
| Alice, Trifle's Royalty (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $674.99 | $586.94 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water (005C) | Collector Super Rare | $649.99 | $565.19 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water (006A) | Collector Super Rare | $643.49 | $559.54 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind (008A) | Collector Super Rare | $599.99 | $521.69 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Wind (009B) | Collector Super Rare | $599.99 | $521.69 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Fire (003A) | Collector Super Rare | $598.44 | $520.34 |
| Auspicious Manifestation (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $550.00 | $478.20 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water (006B) | Collector Super Rare | $549.99 | $478.19 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water (006C) | Collector Super Rare | $549.99 | $478.19 |
| Spirit Blade: Retribution (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $549.61 | $477.86 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Wind (009C) | Collector Super Rare | $500.00 | $434.70 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Wind (009A) | Collector Super Rare | $499.99 | $434.69 |
| Spirit of Serene Wind (010A) | Collector Super Rare | $485.04 | $421.68 |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Fire (003C) | Collector Super Rare | $464.19 | $403.55 |
| Golden Checkmate (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $419.99 | $365.09 |
| Full Bloom (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $417.77 | $363.16 |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire (002B) | Collector Super Rare | $395.98 | $344.20 |
| Nuriel, Seraphic Paladin (CSR) | Collector Super Rare | $374.98 | $325.93 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its TCGplayer market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.