$86€77todayIs a Black Bolt booster bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$86.01€76.74
- Lowest listing
- $44.82€39.99
- Per pack
- $14.34€12.79
Keep it sealed$34€31 of cards inside, after selling costs
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $34€31 after selling costs. The box costs $86€77.
On average you lose $52€46 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Pull rates are still uncertain. The real value could be anywhere from $28€25 to $49€44.
No prices yet for: Poké Ball pattern, Master Ball pattern, Basic Energy. We count them as worth nothing.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 5 make money
- 95 lose money
A typical box is worth $14€12. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $61€55 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $1€1 or less.
Black Bolt EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 6 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $86€77
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $41€36
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$6−€6
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $34€31
- Compared with the box price
- −$52−€46
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $86.01€76.74$14.34€12.79 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $44.82€39.99
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $8€7 | 33 of 100 | Lose money |
| $8€7 to $13€12 | 15 of 100 | Lose money |
| $13€12 to $19€17 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| $19€17 to $24€22 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| $24€22 to $30€27 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| $30€27 to $36€32 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| $36€32 to $41€37 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $41€37 to $47€42 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $47€42 to $52€47 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $52€47 to $58€52 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $58€52 to $64€57 | 1 in 68 | Lose money |
| $64€57 to $69€62 | 1 in 67 | Lose money |
| $69€62 to $75€67 | 1 in 101 | Lose money |
| $75€67 to $80€72 | 1 in 97 | Lose money |
| $80€72 to $86€77 | 1 in 152 | Lose money |
| $86€77 to $92€82 | 1 in 214 | Make money |
| $92€82 to $97€87 | 1 in 326 | Make money |
| $97€87 to $103€92 | 1 in 340 | Make money |
| $103€92 to $108€97 | 1 in 588 | Make money |
| $108€97 to $114€102 | 1 in 800 | Make money |
| $114€102 to $120€107 | 1 in 1,020 | Make money |
| $120€107 to $125€112 | 1 in 1,818 | Make money |
| $125€112 to $131€117 | 1 in 2,041 | Make money |
| $131€117 to $136€122 | 1 in 3,571 | Make money |
| $136€122 to $142€127 | 1 in 3,846 | Make money |
| $142€127 to $148€132 | 1 in 12,500 | Make money |
| $148€132 to $153€137 | 1 in 12,500 | Make money |
| $153€137 to $159€142 | 1 in 16,667 | Make money |
| $159€142 to $164€147 | 1 in 12,500 | Make money |
| $164€147 to $170€152 | 1 in 16,667 | Make money |
| $170€152 to $176€157 | 1 in 33,333 | Make money |
| $176€157 to $181€162 | 1 in 33,333 | Make money |
| $181€162 to $187€167 | 1 in 50,000 | Make money |
| $187€167 to $192€172 | 1 in 100,000 | Make money |
| $192€172 to $198€177 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $198€177 to $204€182 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $204€182 to $209€187 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $209€187 to $215€192 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $215€192 or more | 4 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare1 in 1.0 boxes | 1 in 1.0 boxes | $20.47€18.27 | |
| Black White Rare1 in 83 boxes | 1 in 83 boxes | $603.83€538.75 | |
| Special Illustration Rare1 in 13 boxes | 1 in 13 boxes | $77.45€69.10 | |
| Ultra Rare1 in 2.9 boxes | 1 in 2.9 boxes | $1.70€1.51 | |
| Common24 per box | 24 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Uncommon18 per box | 18 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Reverse Holo8.8 per box | 8.8 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Rare4.4 per box | 4.4 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Double Rare1.3 per box | 1.3 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Poké Ball pattern1.8 per box | 1.8 per box | No price yet | |
| Master Ball pattern1 in 3.2 boxes | 1 in 3.2 boxes | No price yet | |
| Basic Energy6.0 per box | 6.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | $34€31 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Illustration Rare 66of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). 1 in 1.0 boxes$20€18 each
- Master Ball pattern 27of 100 boxes A Reverse Holo with a Master Ball foil pattern. Cardmarket doesn't list these on their own yet, so they count as nothing for now. 1 in 3.2 boxesNo price yet
- Special Illustration Rare 7of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. 1 in 13 boxes$77€69 each
- Black White Rare 1 in 84boxes 1 in 83 boxes$604€539 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). | 66 of 100 | 1 in 1.0 boxes | 70 |
| Master Ball patternA Reverse Holo with a Master Ball foil pattern. Cardmarket doesn't list these on their own yet, so they count as nothing for now. | 27 of 100 | 1 in 3.2 boxes | |
| Special Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. | 7 of 100 | 1 in 13 boxes | 93 |
| Black White Rare | 1 in 84 | 1 in 83 boxes | 167 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $34€31 | −$52−€46 | 95 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $26€23 | −$60−€54 | 96 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $17€15 | −$69−€61 | 96 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $9€8 | −$77−€69 | 99 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Black Bolt pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on October 15, 2026.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 4 per pack | |||
| Common | 24 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 18 per box | Pack layout | |
| Reverse holo slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Poké Ball pattern | 1.8 per box | 1.4 to 2.4 per box | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Reverse Holo | 4.2 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Foil slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Master Ball pattern | 1 in 3.2 boxes | 1 in 2.2 to 4.8 boxes | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 1.0 boxes | 1 in 1.3 boxes to 1.3 per box | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 13 boxes | 1 in 8.0 to 22 boxes | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Black White Rare | 1 in 83 boxes | 1 in 34 to 204 boxes | Published estimate, Card Codex: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (1,000 packs, Reddit study) |
| Reverse Holo | 4.6 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Double Rare | 1.3 per box | 1 in 1.0 boxes to 1.6 per box | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 2.9 boxes | 1 in 1.9 to 4.2 boxes | Published estimate, Deltia's Gaming: Black Bolt and White Flare pull rates (TCGplayer, 720 packs of both sets) |
| Rare | 4.4 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Energy slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Basic Energy | 6.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable Black Bolt cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zekrom ex (172) | Black White Rare | $719.54€641.99 | $683.29€609.64 |
| Victini (171) | Black White Rare | $552.27€492.75 | $524.38€467.86 |
| Zekrom ex (166) | Special Illustration Rare | $294.78€263.01 | $279.76€249.61 |
| Seismitoad (105) | Illustration Rare | $266.50€237.78 | $252.90€225.64 |
| Kyurem ex (165) | Special Illustration Rare | $79.22€70.68 | $74.98€66.90 |
| Haxorus (147) | Illustration Rare | $68.00€60.67 | $64.32€57.39 |
| N's Plan (170) | Special Illustration Rare | $53.24€47.50 | $50.30€44.88 |
| Krookodile (137) | Illustration Rare | $52.45€46.80 | $49.55€44.21 |
| Volcarona (100) | Illustration Rare | $51.02€45.52 | $48.19€42.99 |
| Serperior ex (164) | Special Illustration Rare | $50.04€44.65 | $47.26€42.17 |
| Lilligant (092) | Illustration Rare | $43.41€38.73 | $40.96€36.54 |
| Snivy (087) | Illustration Rare | $38.63€34.47 | $36.42€32.50 |
| Conkeldurr (127) | Illustration Rare | $37.91€33.82 | $35.73€31.88 |
| Genesect ex (169) | Special Illustration Rare | $37.69€33.63 | $35.53€31.70 |
| Landorus (131) | Illustration Rare | $37.03€33.04 | $34.90€31.14 |
| Unfezant (150) | Illustration Rare | $36.73€32.77 | $34.61€30.88 |
| Dwebble (129) | Illustration Rare | $35.66€31.82 | $33.60€29.98 |
| Meloetta ex (167) | Special Illustration Rare | $33.99€30.33 | $32.01€28.56 |
| Scolipede (134) | Illustration Rare | $32.93€29.38 | $31.00€27.66 |
| Amoonguss (096) | Illustration Rare | $32.86€29.32 | $30.94€27.60 |
| Cobalion (144) | Illustration Rare | $30.45€27.17 | $28.65€25.56 |
| Solosis (118) | Illustration Rare | $26.72€23.84 | $25.10€22.40 |
| Eelektross (115) | Illustration Rare | $26.71€23.83 | $25.09€22.39 |
| Tirtouga (106) | Illustration Rare | $26.43€23.58 | $24.83€22.15 |
| Klinklang (141) | Illustration Rare | $25.99€23.19 | $24.41€21.78 |
| Fraxure (146) | Illustration Rare | $25.69€22.92 | $24.12€21.52 |
| Pidove (148) | Illustration Rare | $24.70€22.04 | $23.19€20.69 |
| Excadrill ex (168) | Special Illustration Rare | $23.78€21.22 | $22.31€19.91 |
| Alomomola (108) | Illustration Rare | $23.57€21.03 | $22.11€19.73 |
| Escavalier (138) | Illustration Rare | $22.33€19.92 | $20.93€18.67 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
More Pokémon boxes
- Pokémon Black BoltElite Trainer Box Keep it sealed $52€46 of cards for a $121€108 box 94 of 100 boxes lose money
- Pokémon White FlareBooster bundle Keep it sealed $30€27 of cards for a $77€68 box 93 of 100 boxes lose money
- Pokémon White FlareElite Trainer Box Keep it sealed $45€41 of cards for a $118€105 box 95 of 100 boxes lose money
- Pokémon Destined Rivals Keep it sealed $96€85 of cards for a $328€293 box 95 of 100 boxes lose money
- Pokémon Destined RivalsBooster bundle Keep it sealed $16€14 of cards for a $79€71 box 97 of 100 boxes lose money
- Pokémon Destined RivalsElite Trainer Box Keep it sealed $24€21 of cards for a $143€128 box 96 of 100 boxes lose money
Compare: Mega Evolution vs Black Bolt, Black Bolt vs White Flare, Elite Trainer Box vs booster bundle