$231€206todayIs a Paldean Fates Elite Trainer Box worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$231.03€206.13
- Lowest listing
- $119.93€107
- Per pack
- $25.67€22.90
Keep it sealed$43€39 of cards inside, after selling costs
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $43€39 after selling costs. The box costs $231€206.
On average you lose $188€168 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Some pull rates are estimates, so the real value is likely between $37€33 and $49€43.
No prices yet for: Basic Energy. We count them as worth nothing.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 4 make money
- 96 lose money
A typical box is worth $16€14. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $48€43 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $6€5 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $231€206
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $53€47
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$10−€9
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $43€39
- Compared with the box price
- −$188−€168
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $231.03€206.13$25.67€22.90 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $119.93€107
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $29€26 | 76 of 100 | Lose money |
| $29€26 to $52€46 | 15 of 100 | Lose money |
| $52€46 to $74€66 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| $74€66 to $97€86 | 1 in 181 | Lose money |
| $97€86 to $119€106 | 1 in 1,667 | Lose money |
| $119€106 to $141€126 | 1 in 12,500 | Lose money |
| $141€126 to $164€146 | 1 in 1,075 | Lose money |
| $164€146 to $186€166 | 1 in 73 | Lose money |
| $186€166 to $209€186 | 1 in 292 | Lose money |
| $209€186 to $231€206 | 1 in 1,639 | Lose money |
| $231€206 to $253€226 | 1 in 5,263 | Make money |
| $253€226 to $276€246 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $276€246 to $298€266 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $298€266 to $321€286 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $321€286 to $343€306 | 1 in 5,556 | Make money |
| $343€306 to $366€326 | 1 in 25,000 | Make money |
| $366€326 to $388€346 | 1 in 72 | Make money |
| $388€346 to $410€366 | 1 in 247 | Make money |
| $410€366 to $433€386 | 1 in 1,786 | Make money |
| $433€386 to $455€406 | 1 in 5,882 | Make money |
| $455€406 to $478€426 | 1 in 100,000 | Make money |
| $478€426 to $500€446 | 1 in 50,000 | Make money |
| $500€446 to $522€466 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $522€466 to $545€486 | 1 in 5,882 | Make money |
| $545€486 to $567€506 | 1 in 20,000 | Make money |
| $567€506 or more | 2 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Special Illustration Rare1 in 6.4 boxes | 1 in 6.4 boxes | $162.99€145.42 | |
| Shiny Rare2.3 per box | 2.3 per box | $5.36€4.78 | |
| Shiny Ultra Rare1 in 1.4 boxes | 1 in 1.4 boxes | $3.21€2.86 | |
| Hyper Rare1 in 6.9 boxes | 1 in 6.9 boxes | $8.82€7.87 | |
| Illustration Rare1 in 1.6 boxes | 1 in 1.6 boxes | $1.27€1.13 | |
| Double Rare1.4 per box | 1.4 per box | $0.40€0.35 | |
| Common36 per box | 36 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Uncommon27 per box | 27 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Reverse Holo14 per box | 14 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Rare7.0 per box | 7.0 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Ultra Rare1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.7 boxes | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Basic Energy9.0 per box | 9.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | $43€39 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Shiny Ultra Rare 51of 100 boxes A shiny Pokémon ex, V, VMAX or GX. 1 in 1.4 boxes$3.21€2.86 each
- Illustration Rare 49of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). 1 in 1.6 boxes$1.27€1.13 each
- Special Illustration Rare 14of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. 1 in 6.4 boxes$163€145 each
- Hyper Rare 14of 100 boxes Gold-etched Pokémon ex, Trainer or Energy cards (three gold stars), the rarest cards of Scarlet & Violet sets. 1 in 6.9 boxes$8.82€7.87 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shiny Ultra RareA shiny Pokémon ex, V, VMAX or GX. | 51 of 100 | 1 in 1.4 boxes | 17 |
| Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). | 49 of 100 | 1 in 1.6 boxes | 4.7 |
| Special Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. | 14 of 100 | 1 in 6.4 boxes | 52 |
| Hyper RareGold-etched Pokémon ex, Trainer or Energy cards (three gold stars), the rarest cards of Scarlet & Violet sets. | 14 of 100 | 1 in 6.9 boxes | 41 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $43€39 | −$188−€168 | 96 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $32€28 | −$199−€178 | 96 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $21€19 | −$210−€187 | 98 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $10€9 | −$221−€197 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 15 October 2026.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 4 per pack | |||
| Common | 36 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 27 per box | Pack layout | |
| Reverse holo slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Shiny Rare | 2.3 per box | 1.9 to 2.7 per box | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Reverse Holo | 6.8 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Foil slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Shiny Ultra Rare | 1 in 1.4 boxes | 1 in 1.2 to 1.8 boxes | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 1.6 boxes | 1 in 1.3 to 1.9 boxes | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 6.4 boxes | 1 in 5.3 to 7.8 boxes | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 6.9 boxes | 1 in 5.7 to 8.3 boxes | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Reverse Holo | 7.4 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Double Rare | 1.4 per box | 1.0 to 2.0 per box | Published estimate, Card Codex: Paldean Fates Charizard ex odds per card (Double Rare; no source or sample given) |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.4 to 2.0 boxes | Published estimate, PokeBeach: Paldean Fates pull rates revealed (TCGplayer, 1,500 packs) |
| Rare | 7.0 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Energy slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Basic Energy | 9.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mew ex (232) | Special Illustration Rare | $754.53€673.21 | $716.53€639.30 |
| Charizard ex (234) | Special Illustration Rare | $384.62€343.17 | $365.11€325.76 |
| Gardevoir ex (233) | Special Illustration Rare | $168.65€150.47 | $159.93€142.70 |
| Pikachu (131) | Shiny Rare | $55.89€49.87 | $52.82€47.13 |
| Mimikyu (160) | Shiny Rare | $30.21€26.95 | $28.42€25.35 |
| Snorlax (202) | Shiny Rare | $29.53€26.35 | $27.78€24.78 |
| Charmander (109) | Shiny Rare | $28.21€25.17 | $26.52€23.66 |
| Ditto (201) | Shiny Rare | $25.15€22.44 | $23.61€21.07 |
| Raichu (132) | Shiny Rare | $24.43€21.80 | $22.93€20.46 |
| Mew ex (216) | Shiny Ultra Rare | $20.91€18.66 | $19.59€17.48 |
| Iono (237) | Special Illustration Rare | $19.89€17.75 | $18.62€16.61 |
| Clive (236) | Special Illustration Rare | $19.24€17.17 | $18.00€16.06 |
| Lucario (174) | Shiny Rare | $15.94€14.22 | $14.86€13.26 |
| Maushold (210) | Shiny Rare | $15.48€13.81 | $14.42€12.87 |
| Charmeleon (110) | Shiny Rare | $15.40€13.74 | $14.35€12.80 |
| Penny (239) | Special Illustration Rare | $15.05€13.43 | $14.02€12.51 |
| Miraidon ex (243) | Hyper Rare | $13.28€11.85 | $12.34€11.01 |
| Jigglypuff (198) | Shiny Rare | $13.08€11.67 | $12.15€10.84 |
| Tandemaus (209) | Shiny Rare | $12.90€11.51 | $11.98€10.68 |
| Koraidon ex (245) | Hyper Rare | $12.65€11.29 | $11.74€10.48 |
| Entei (112) | Shiny Rare | $11.72€10.46 | $10.86€9.69 |
| Abra (148) | Shiny Rare | $10.27€9.16 | $9.47€8.45 |
| Riolu (173) | Shiny Rare | $9.80€8.74 | $9.03€8.05 |
| Slowpoke (116) | Shiny Rare | $9.74€8.69 | $8.97€8.01 |
| Chi-Yu ex (241) | Hyper Rare | $9.16€8.17 | $8.42€7.51 |
| Chien-Pao ex (242) | Hyper Rare | $8.84€7.89 | $8.12€7.25 |
| Scyther (095) | Shiny Rare | $8.34€7.44 | $7.64€6.82 |
| Slowbro (117) | Shiny Rare | $7.97€7.11 | $7.29€6.50 |
| Ralts (153) | Shiny Rare | $7.92€7.07 | $7.25€6.47 |
| Luxray (137) | Shiny Rare | $7.71€6.88 | $7.05€6.29 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.