€53todayIs an Outlaws of Thunder Junction bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
€53.21
- Lowest listing
- €30.88
- Per pack
- €5.91
Keep it sealed€29 of cards inside, after selling costs
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth €29 after selling costs. The box costs €53.
On average you lose €24 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Pull rates for this set are well documented.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 10 make money
- 90 lose money
A typical box is worth €24. 1 in 10 boxes is worth €54 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth €12 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- €53
- Cards inside, at market prices
- €48
- Selling costs and bulk
- −€19
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- €29
- Compared with the box price
- −€24
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, €0.25 per card sold, cards under €1.00 go to bulk at €0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- €53.21€5.91 per pack
- Lowest listing
- €30.88
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under €6 | 1 in 89 | Lose money |
| €6 to €8 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €8 to €11 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €11 to €13 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| €13 to €16 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| €16 to €18 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| €18 to €21 | 9 of 100 | Lose money |
| €21 to €23 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| €23 to €26 | 7 of 100 | Lose money |
| €26 to €28 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| €28 to €31 | 5 of 100 | Lose money |
| €31 to €33 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €33 to €36 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| €36 to €38 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €38 to €41 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €41 to €43 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €43 to €46 | 3 of 100 | Lose money |
| €46 to €48 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €48 to €51 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €51 to €53 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €53 to €56 | 2 of 100 | Make money |
| €56 to €58 | 1 in 73 | Make money |
| €58 to €61 | 1 in 83 | Make money |
| €61 to €63 | 1 in 95 | Make money |
| €63 to €66 | 1 in 117 | Make money |
| €66 to €68 | 1 in 145 | Make money |
| €68 to €71 | 1 in 168 | Make money |
| €71 to €73 | 1 in 206 | Make money |
| €73 to €76 | 1 in 256 | Make money |
| €76 to €78 | 1 in 287 | Make money |
| €78 to €81 | 1 in 361 | Make money |
| €81 or more | 2 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus-sheet mythic rare1.7 per box | 1.7 per box | €4.97 | |
| Rare8.2 per box | 8.2 per box | €0.81 | |
| Mythic rare1.3 per box | 1.3 per box | €4.14 | |
| Bonus-sheet rare3.0 per box | 3.0 per box | €0.68 | |
| Special Guests1 in 7.1 boxes | 1 in 7.1 boxes | €13.45 | |
| Uncommon34 per box | 34 per box | €0.05 | |
| Common57 per box | 57 per box | €0.02 | |
| Foil rare1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.7 boxes | €1.03 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 10 boxes | 1 in 10 boxes | €5.09 | |
| Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare1 in 4.4 boxes | 1 in 4.4 boxes | €1.59 | |
| Foil uncommon2.8 per box | 2.8 per box | €0.10 | |
| Foil common6.4 per box | 6.4 per box | €0.04 | |
| Bonus-sheet uncommon6.0 per box | 6.0 per box | €0.01 | |
| Basic land3.6 per box | 3.6 per box | €0.01 | |
| Foil basic land1 in 1.1 boxes | 1 in 1.1 boxes | €0.01 | |
| Total | €29 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Bonus-sheet mythic rare 81of 100 boxes Mythic rares from the set's bonus sheet (for example Mystical Archive, Retro Artifacts, Multiverse Legends, Enchanting Tales, The Big Score, Through the Ages, Stellar Sights). 1.7 per box€4.97 each
- Mythic rare 75of 100 boxes 1.3 per box€4.14 each
- Foil rare 45of 100 boxes 1 in 1.7 boxes€1.03 each
- Special Guests 13of 100 boxes Special Guests: reprints of famous cards with new art that replace a common in a small share of boosters. 1 in 7.1 boxes€13 each
- Foil mythic rare 9of 100 boxes 1 in 10 boxes€5.09 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bonus-sheet mythic rareMythic rares from the set's bonus sheet (for example Mystical Archive, Retro Artifacts, Multiverse Legends, Enchanting Tales, The Big Score, Through the Ages, Stellar Sights). | 81 of 100 | 1.7 per box | 27 |
| Mythic rare | 75 of 100 | 1.3 per box | 16 |
| Foil rare | 45 of 100 | 1 in 1.7 boxes | 103 |
| Special GuestsSpecial Guests: reprints of famous cards with new art that replace a common in a small share of boosters. | 13 of 100 | 1 in 7.1 boxes | 71 |
| Foil mythic rare | 9 of 100 | 1 in 10 boxes | 202 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | €29 | −€24 | 90 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | €21 | −€32 | 97 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | €13 | −€41 | more than 99 of 100 boxes | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | €6 | −€47 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 6 per pack | |||
| Special Guests | 1 in 7.1 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Bonus-sheet mythic rare | 1.7 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Common | 52 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 27 per box | Pack layout | |
| Wildcard slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Rare | 1 in 1.3 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Common | 1.3 per box | 1 in 1.2 boxes to 2.3 per box | Our assumption |
| Uncommon | 6.9 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Showcase, borderless or extended-art rare | 1 in 4.4 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Mythic rare | 1.3 per box | 1.1 to 1.5 per box | Published estimate, Wizards of the Coast, "What Are Play Boosters?" (Making Magic, Murders at Karlov Manor layout) |
| Rare | 7.5 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Bonus slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Bonus-sheet rare | 3.0 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Bonus-sheet uncommon | 6.0 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Foil slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Foil uncommon | 2.8 per box | 1.7 to 4.7 per box | Our assumption |
| Foil rare | 1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.0 to 2.9 boxes | Our assumption |
| Foil mythic rare | 1 in 10 boxes | 1 in 6.0 to 17 boxes | Our assumption |
| Foil common | 5.5 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Land slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Common | 3.6 per box | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Foil common | 1 in 1.1 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Foil basic land | 1 in 1.1 boxes | Official, Wizards of the Coast, Collecting Outlaws of Thunder Junction | |
| Basic land | 3.6 per box | The rest of the slot | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prismatic Vista | Special Guests | €42.44 | €40.07 |
| Mana Drain | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €42.39 | €40.02 |
| Scapeshift | Special Guests | €41.16 | €38.85 |
| Terror of the Peaks (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €30.11 | €28.35 |
| Vaultborn Tyrant | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €28.87 | €27.18 |
| Bristly Bill, Spine Sower (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €27.20 | €25.59 |
| Terror of the Peaks | Mythic rare | €26.58 | €25.00 |
| Bristly Bill, Spine Sower | Mythic rare | €25.46 | €23.94 |
| Stoneforge Mystic | Special Guests | €25.13 | €23.62 |
| Simulacrum Synthesizer | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €24.01 | €22.56 |
| Generous Plunderer | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €12.87 | €11.98 |
| Morbid Opportunist | Special Guests | €12.32 | €11.45 |
| Sword of Wealth and Power | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €12.28 | €11.42 |
| Grand Abolisher | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €11.08 | €10.28 |
| Contagion Engine | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €10.45 | €9.68 |
| Molten Duplication | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €10.34 | €9.57 |
| Fomori Vault | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €10.15 | €9.39 |
| Reanimate | Bonus-sheet rare | €8.38 | €7.71 |
| Goldvein Hydra (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €8.05 | €7.40 |
| Thoughtseize | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €7.68 | €7.05 |
| Gisa, the Hellraiser (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €7.22 | €6.61 |
| High Noon (foil) | Foil rare | €7.21 | €6.60 |
| Railway Brawler (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €6.92 | €6.32 |
| Final Showdown (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €6.84 | €6.25 |
| Crackle with Power | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €6.74 | €6.15 |
| Slickshot Show-Off (foil) | Foil rare | €6.36 | €5.79 |
| Force of Vigor | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €6.29 | €5.73 |
| Mindbreak Trap | Bonus-sheet mythic rare | €6.25 | €5.69 |
| Insatiable Avarice (foil) | Foil rare | €6.03 | €5.48 |
| Tinybones, the Pickpocket (foil) | Foil mythic rare | €6.01 | €5.46 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.