$53€48todayIs a Shadows over Innistrad bundle worth opening?
Cardmarket today
$53.32€47.57
- Lowest listing
- $51.55€45.99
- Per pack
- $5.92€5.29
Keep it sealed$8€7 of cards inside, after selling costs
Estimated contents: nobody has published measured pull rates for this box yet, so we use those of boxes with the same pack layout. Treat the numbers as a rough guide.
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth $8€7 after selling costs. The box costs $53€48.
On average you lose $46€41 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
These pull rates are estimates, but the box's value hardly depends on them: it's likely between $7€7 and $8€7.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth $6€6. 1 in 10 boxes is worth $15€13 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth $2€2 or less.
Shadows over Innistrad EV: the math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- $53€48
- Cards inside, at market prices
- $23€20
- Selling costs and bulk
- −$15−€14
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- $8€7
- Compared with the box price
- −$46−€41
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, $0.28€0.25 per card sold, cards under $1.12€1.00 go to bulk at $0.01€0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- $53.32€47.57$5.92€5.29 per pack
- Lowest listing
- $51.55€45.99
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under $4€4 | 29 of 100 | Lose money |
| $4€4 to $6€6 | 21 of 100 | Lose money |
| $6€6 to $8€8 | 14 of 100 | Lose money |
| $8€8 to $11€10 | 13 of 100 | Lose money |
| $11€10 to $13€12 | 8 of 100 | Lose money |
| $13€12 to $15€14 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| $15€14 to $17€16 | 4 of 100 | Lose money |
| $17€16 to $20€18 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| $20€18 to $22€20 | 1 in 70 | Lose money |
| $22€20 to $24€22 | 1 in 120 | Lose money |
| $24€22 to $26€24 | 1 in 207 | Lose money |
| $26€24 to $29€26 | 1 in 373 | Lose money |
| $29€26 to $31€28 | 1 in 617 | Lose money |
| $31€28 to $33€30 | 1 in 1,149 | Lose money |
| $33€30 to $35€32 | 1 in 2,703 | Lose money |
| $35€32 to $38€34 | 1 in 3,448 | Lose money |
| $38€34 to $40€36 | 1 in 12,500 | Lose money |
| $40€36 to $42€38 | 1 in 50,000 | Lose money |
| $42€38 to $44€40 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $44€40 to $47€42 | 1 in 100,000 | Lose money |
| $47€42 to $49€44 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $49€44 to $51€46 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $51€46 to $53€48 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| $53€48 to $56€50 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| $56€50 to $58€52 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rare7.9 per box | 7.9 per box | $0.41€0.37 | |
| Uncommon27 per box | 27 per box | $0.04€0.04 | |
| Mythic rare1.1 per box | 1.1 per box | $1.05€0.94 | |
| Common88 per box | 88 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Foil rare1 in 3.8 boxes | 1 in 3.8 boxes | $1.17€1.04 | |
| Foil common1.2 per box | 1.2 per box | $0.21€0.19 | |
| Foil uncommon1 in 2.0 boxes | 1 in 2.0 boxes | $0.36€0.32 | |
| Foil mythic rare1 in 26 boxes | 1 in 26 boxes | $3.52€3.14 | |
| Basic land9.0 per box | 9.0 per box | $0.01€0.01 | |
| Total | $8€7 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Mythic rare 70of 100 boxes 1.1 per box$1.05€0.94 each
- Foil rare 23of 100 boxes 1 in 3.8 boxes$1.17€1.04 each
- Foil mythic rare 4of 100 boxes 1 in 26 boxes$3.52€3.14 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mythic rare | 70 of 100 | 1.1 per box | 16 |
| Foil rare | 23 of 100 | 1 in 3.8 boxes | 222 |
| Foil mythic rare | 4 of 100 | 1 in 26 boxes | 474 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | $8€7 | −$46−€41 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | $6€5 | −$48−€43 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | $4€3 | −$50−€44 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | $2€2 | −$51−€46 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Shadows over Innistrad pull rates
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on October 14, 2026. This box's own pull rates haven't been measured, so these come from boxes with the same pack layout, with extra uncertainty added.
Most valuable Shadows over Innistrad cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relentless Dead (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $15.40€13.74 | $14.35€12.80 |
| Alms of the Vein (foil) | Foil common | $15.25€13.61 | $14.21€12.68 |
| Relentless Dead | Mythic rare | $11.66€10.40 | $10.79€9.63 |
| Eerie Interlude (foil) | Foil rare | $8.64€7.71 | $7.93€7.07 |
| Cryptolith Rite (foil) | Foil rare | $8.20€7.32 | $7.51€6.70 |
| Diregraf Colossus (foil) | Foil rare | $8.05€7.18 | $7.36€6.57 |
| Cryptolith Rite | Rare | $7.68€6.85 | $7.01€6.26 |
| The Gitrog Monster (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $7.43€6.63 | $6.78€6.05 |
| Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $7.37€6.58 | $6.73€6.00 |
| Eerie Interlude | Rare | $6.72€6.00 | $6.11€5.45 |
| Open the Armory (foil) | Foil uncommon | $5.96€5.32 | $5.38€4.80 |
| Westvale Abbey // Ormendahl, Profane Prince (foil) | Foil rare | $5.95€5.31 | $5.37€4.79 |
| Jace, Unraveler of Secrets (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $5.72€5.10 | $5.15€4.60 |
| Ulvenwald Hydra (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $5.37€4.79 | $4.82€4.30 |
| Duskwatch Recruiter // Krallenhorde Howler (foil) | Foil uncommon | $5.32€4.75 | $4.78€4.26 |
| Tamiyo's Journal (foil) | Foil rare | $4.91€4.38 | $4.38€3.91 |
| Essence Flux (foil) | Foil uncommon | $4.80€4.28 | $4.28€3.82 |
| Diregraf Colossus | Rare | $4.61€4.11 | $4.10€3.65 |
| Anguished Unmaking (foil) | Foil rare | $4.49€4.01 | $3.99€3.56 |
| Sorin, Grim Nemesis (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $4.24€3.78 | $3.74€3.34 |
| Behold the Beyond (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.78€3.37 | $3.31€2.95 |
| Thalia's Lieutenant (foil) | Foil rare | $3.71€3.31 | $3.24€2.89 |
| Second Harvest (foil) | Foil rare | $3.61€3.22 | $3.15€2.81 |
| Nahiri, the Harbinger (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.49€3.11 | $3.03€2.70 |
| Startled Awake // Persistent Nightmare (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.27€2.92 | $2.83€2.52 |
| Arlinn Kord // Arlinn, Embraced by the Moon (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $3.01€2.69 | $2.58€2.31 |
| Open the Armory | Uncommon | $2.99€2.67 | $2.56€2.29 |
| Sigarda, Heron's Grace (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $2.91€2.60 | $2.49€2.22 |
| Seasons Past (foil) | Foil mythic rare | $2.87€2.56 | $2.45€2.18 |
| Insolent Neonate (foil) | Foil common | $2.85€2.54 | $2.42€2.16 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.
More Magic boxes
- Magic Eldritch MoonDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $44€39 of cards for a $209€186 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Eldritch MoonBundle Keep it sealed $11€10 of cards for a $71€63 box More than 99 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Eternal MastersDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $301€269 of cards for a $377€336 box 84 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Shadows over InnistradDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $30€27 of cards for a $161€143 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Oath of the GatewatchDraft Boosters Keep it sealed $27€25 of cards for a $143€128 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
- Magic Oath of the GatewatchBundle Keep it sealed $7€6 of cards for a $48€43 box 100 of 100 boxes lose money
Compare: Eldritch Moon vs Shadows over Innistrad, Shadows over Innistrad vs Oath of the Gatewatch, Draft Booster box vs bundle