€209todayIs an Obsidian Flames Elite Trainer Box worth opening?
Cardmarket today
€209.13
- Lowest listing
- €140
- Per pack
- €23.24
Keep it sealed€16 of cards inside, after selling costs
Why we'd keep it sealed
The cards inside are worth €16 after selling costs. The box costs €209.
On average you lose €193 per box. Buying the singles you want is cheaper.
Pull rates for this set are well documented.
No prices yet for: Basic Energy. We count them as €0.
If you opened 100 boxes
- 0 make money
- 100 lose money
A typical box is worth €7. 1 in 10 boxes is worth €36 or more, and 1 in 10 is worth €1 or less.
The math, per box
From the price of every card to what you'd actually keep.
Per box of 9 packs
- Box price on Cardmarket
- €209
- Cards inside, at market prices
- €24
- Selling costs and bulk
- −€8
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- €16
- Compared with the box price
- −€193
From 100,000 simulated boxes. Selling costs: 5% fee, €0.25 per card sold, cards under €1.00 go to bulk at €0.01.
- Cards inside, at market prices
- The average value of everything in a box, with each card at its price on Cardmarket today.
- Selling costs and bulk
- Cardmarket's fee and postage for every card worth selling. Cheap cards go to bulk for a few cents.
- Cards inside, after selling costs
- What an average box puts in your pocket once everything is sold.
- Compared with the box price
- Plus means the average box is worth more than it costs. Minus means it's worth less.
What the box costs
Today's price on Cardmarket, and how the box price and the cards inside have moved.
- Cardmarket today
- €209.13€23.24 per pack
- Lowest listing
- €140
The price history starts on the day live prices switch on, and grows by one point a day.
What 100,000 simulated boxes were worth
Every box is different. This is how the value of each simulated box came out, after selling costs.
Show as a table
| Box value | Boxes out of 100 | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Under €19 | 72 of 100 | Lose money |
| €19 to €29 | 14 of 100 | Lose money |
| €29 to €39 | 6 of 100 | Lose money |
| €39 to €49 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €49 to €59 | 1 in 89 | Lose money |
| €59 to €69 | 1 in 357 | Lose money |
| €69 to €79 | 2 of 100 | Lose money |
| €79 to €89 | 1 in 98 | Lose money |
| €89 to €99 | 1 in 157 | Lose money |
| €99 to €109 | 1 in 228 | Lose money |
| €109 to €119 | 1 in 806 | Lose money |
| €119 to €129 | 1 in 1,724 | Lose money |
| €129 to €139 | 1 in 12,500 | Lose money |
| €139 to €149 | 1 in 2,857 | Lose money |
| €149 to €159 | 1 in 2,439 | Lose money |
| €159 to €169 | 1 in 5,882 | Lose money |
| €169 to €179 | 1 in 12,500 | Lose money |
| €179 to €189 | 1 in 20,000 | Lose money |
| €189 to €199 | 1 in 33,333 | Lose money |
| €199 to €209 | 0 of 100 | Lose money |
| €209 to €219 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
| €219 to €229 | 0 of 100 | Make money |
Where the value comes from
The average box, split by card type. Most of the value often sits in cards you'll rarely see.
| Card type | How many per box | Average card after selling costs | Adds to the box |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration Rare1 in 1.5 boxes | 1 in 1.5 boxes | €9.51 | |
| Special Illustration Rare1 in 3.5 boxes | 1 in 3.5 boxes | €17.13 | |
| Hyper Rare1 in 5.8 boxes | 1 in 5.8 boxes | €9.43 | |
| Ultra Rare1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.7 boxes | €1.94 | |
| Double Rare1.2 per box | 1.2 per box | €0.45 | |
| Common36 per box | 36 per box | €0.01 | |
| Reverse Holo17 per box | 17 per box | €0.02 | |
| Uncommon27 per box | 27 per box | €0.01 | |
| Rare7.2 per box | 7.2 per box | €0.01 | |
| Basic Energy9.0 per box | 9.0 per box | No price yet | |
| Total | €16 |
Chance of a big pull
How often a box has at least one of the rarest cards.
- Illustration Rare 51of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). 1 in 1.5 boxes€9.51 each
- Special Illustration Rare 25of 100 boxes Full-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. 1 in 3.5 boxes€17 each
- Hyper Rare 16of 100 boxes Gold-etched Pokémon ex, Trainer or Energy cards (three gold stars), the rarest cards of Scarlet & Violet sets. 1 in 5.8 boxes€9.43 each
Show as a table
| Card type | Boxes with at least one | On average | Boxes for one specific card |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a regular Pokémon (one gold star). | 51 of 100 | 1 in 1.5 boxes | 18 |
| Special Illustration RareFull-card alternate artwork of a Pokémon ex or Supporter (two gold stars): the big chase cards of modern sets. | 25 of 100 | 1 in 3.5 boxes | 21 |
| Hyper RareGold-etched Pokémon ex, Trainer or Energy cards (three gold stars), the rarest cards of Scarlet & Violet sets. | 16 of 100 | 1 in 5.8 boxes | 17 |
If card prices fall
Prices often drop in the weeks after a set comes out. This is the same box with cheaper cards and the same box price.
| Card prices | Cards inside, after costs | Compared with the box | Boxes that lose money | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today's prices | €16 | −€193 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 25% lower | €12 | −€198 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 50% lower | €8 | −€201 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
| 75% lower | €4 | −€205 | 100 of 100 | Keep it sealed |
Pull rates we used
Where each number comes from, and how sure we are. Sources checked on 14 October 2026.
| Card type | How often | Likely range | Based on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common slots, 4 per pack | |||
| Common | 36 per box | Pack layout | |
| Uncommon slots, 3 per pack | |||
| Uncommon | 27 per box | Pack layout | |
| Reverse holo slots, 1 per pack | |||
| Reverse Holo | 9.0 per box | Pack layout | |
| Foil slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Illustration Rare | 1 in 1.5 boxes | 1 in 1.3 to 1.7 boxes | Published estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Obsidian Flames Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs (2023) |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1 in 3.5 boxes | 1 in 3.1 to 4.0 boxes | Published estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Obsidian Flames Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs (2023) |
| Hyper Rare | 1 in 5.8 boxes | 1 in 5.1 to 6.6 boxes | Published estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Obsidian Flames Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs (2023) |
| Reverse Holo | 7.9 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Rare slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Double Rare | 1.2 per box | 1.1 to 1.4 per box | Published estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Obsidian Flames Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs (2023) |
| Ultra Rare | 1 in 1.7 boxes | 1 in 1.5 to 1.9 boxes | Published estimate, TCGplayer (Peter Day): Pokémon TCG: Obsidian Flames Pull Rates, 8,000+ packs (2023) |
| Rare | 7.2 per box | The rest of the slot | |
| Energy slot, 1 per pack | |||
| Basic Energy | 9.0 per box | Pack layout | |
Most valuable cards
The 30 most valuable cards in the set, and what you'd keep after selling one.
| Card | Card type | Cardmarket price | After selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charizard ex (223) | Special Illustration Rare | €77.41 | €73.29 |
| Charizard ex (228) | Hyper Rare | €26.70 | €25.12 |
| Cleffa (202) | Illustration Rare | €24.81 | €23.32 |
| Ninetales (199) | Illustration Rare | €24.72 | €23.23 |
| Pidgeot ex (225) | Special Illustration Rare | €18.61 | €17.43 |
| Scizor (205) | Illustration Rare | €14.37 | €13.40 |
| Charizard ex (215) | Ultra Rare | €13.56 | €12.63 |
| Gloom (198) | Illustration Rare | €13.36 | €12.44 |
| Pidgeotto (208) | Illustration Rare | €12.75 | €11.86 |
| Pidgey (207) | Illustration Rare | €12.31 | €11.44 |
| Lechonk (209) | Illustration Rare | €5.08 | €4.58 |
| Houndour (204) | Illustration Rare | €4.76 | €4.27 |
| Revavroom ex (224) | Special Illustration Rare | €4.42 | €3.95 |
| Eiscue ex (222) | Special Illustration Rare | €4.30 | €3.84 |
| Charizard ex (125) | Double Rare | €3.66 | €3.23 |
| Tyranitar ex (211) | Ultra Rare | €3.60 | €3.17 |
| Larvitar (203) | Illustration Rare | €3.48 | €3.06 |
| Bellibolt (201) | Illustration Rare | €2.99 | €2.59 |
| Geeta (226) | Special Illustration Rare | €2.55 | €2.17 |
| Basic Fire Energy (230) | Hyper Rare | €2.49 | €2.12 |
| Poppy (227) | Special Illustration Rare | €2.47 | €2.10 |
| Palafin (200) | Illustration Rare | €2.44 | €2.07 |
| Dragonite ex (159) | Double Rare | €2.26 | €1.90 |
| Varoom (206) | Illustration Rare | €2.16 | €1.80 |
| Absol ex (214) | Ultra Rare | €1.99 | €1.64 |
| Pidgeot ex (217) | Ultra Rare | €1.81 | €1.47 |
| Umbreon (130), reverse holo | Reverse Holo | €1.72 | €1.38 |
| Artazon (229) | Hyper Rare | €1.37 | €1.05 |
| Vespiquen ex (212) | Ultra Rare | €1.30 | €0.98 |
| Eiscue ex (210) | Ultra Rare | €1.21 | €0.90 |
How we work this out
We price every card at its Cardmarket market value, take off the selling costs above, and open 100,000 virtual boxes slot by slot using the pull rates in the table. The verdict compares the cards with the box price and checks how often a box loses money.